Energy realism – finding common ground

Americans share common ground when it comes to this country’s energy goals. We aspire to an environmentally responsible approach to energy that will help our country be more self-sufficient while not putting the cost of energy out of reach for American consumers and businesses. But we seem to have less common ground in the discussion about how, and when, we can realize those aspirations. I support these energy objectives, but believe that policies to achieve them can be successful only if they are rooted in fact and in reality – what I call “energy realism.”

Energy realism starts with an understanding of scale. Every day the world uses, from all energy sources, the equivalent of 245 million barrels of oil. Worldwide, we use 50 percent more energy than we did only 20 years ago. And 20 years from now, demand will have risen by 30 percent or so more.

Today, the world is 25 percent more energy efficient than it was in 1970, but energy demand more than doubled over that same period. Even aggressive energy-efficiency improvements alone will not be sufficient to offset the energy demands of growing populations and economic development. Energy is the currency of worldwide economic growth. Eighty-five percent of the global economy is powered by oil, natural gas and coal. And that reliance on traditional fuels is just as great here in the United States despite the progress we’ve made in renewables. Renewables have strong promise, and over time they’ll meet a far bigger share of global demand.

But it’s unrealistic to suppose that they can replace conventional energy in a short time frame, as many people want us to believe. Today’s global energy system is enormous and was built over more than a century. We must be realistic in how quickly technology and economics will permit a transition away from fossil fuels.

SF Chronicle