Electricity Generation in Germany – Scenario’s for 2020

The German engineering association VDE produced 3 scenario’s [1] for Germany’s electricity system with time horizon 2020. The report takes an engineering perspective (phyical availability – technical feasibility – economic optimisation – social acceptability). All scenario’s are based on a moderate electricity consumption growth (0.5% p.a.).

* Scenario 1 is based on current energy policy, i.e. massive support for renewables and a nuclear phase-out. Any shortages in primary energy supply are provided by gas.
* Scenario 2 aims for the economic optimum, while observing the Kyoto targets. The nuclear phase-out is slowed down, and development of renewable energy is slower as well
* Finally, scenario 3 aims for a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. It continues to use nuclear energy at the current level, where renewables are strongly developed.

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