Early New Field Production Est. Could Assist in Quantifying Supply Trends

From EnergyBulletin.net, referring to Oil & Gas Journal article – The article uses the “Hubbert Linearization” logistic technique to estimate peak production from a group of oil fields currently being developed. However, the kicker is toward the end of the article, where the author provides his logistic based reserve estimates for the world and for various regions, which are as follows (presumably for crude + condensate, in billions of barrels, or Gb, through 2004):

World:

Total Recoverable Reserves: 2,000 Gb; 1,043 Gb Remaining; 48% depleted.

US:

Total Recoverable Reserves: 225 Gb; 40 Gb Remaining; 82% depleted.

Russia:

Total Recoverable Reserves: 195 Gb; 44 Gb Remaining; 77% depleted.

Saudi Arabia:

Total Recoverable Reserves: 165 Gb; 64 Gb Remaining; 61% depleted.

Final comment at the end of the article: “There is a need for a fast track development plan. At current rates of project slippage, depletion will continue eating into discovery gains.”

Note that the author’s estimate of ultimate recoverable conventional world oil reserves exactly matches Kenneth Deffeyes’ estimate (also 2,000 Gb).

Comments on the article by submitter Jeffrey J. Brown on EnergyBulletin.net

Original PDF article from Oil & Gas Journal