Early indications hint at smaller 2009 cereal crop

Rome – Early indications point to a reduction in global cereal output in 2009 from the 2008 record, according to FAO’s latest Crop Prospects and Food Situation report. Smaller plantings and adverse weather look likely to bring grain production down in most of the world’s major producers.

While conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat throughout Europe and the United States, planted area in these countries has declined, reflecting the prospect of sharply reduced returns compared to last year, combined with persisting high input costs, the report said.


In low-income food-deficit countries, prospects for early 2009 cereal crops point to lower output. The early outlook is for a smaller maize crop in southern Africa. Prolonged dry weather is adversely affecting wheat prospects in Asia, with almost half of China’s winter wheat area suffering from severe drought and precipitation also inadequate in India. Overall, however, much will depend on the rice crop yet to be planted in Asia.

In South America, 2008 wheat production was halved by drought in Argentina, and persistent dry weather is adversely affecting prospects for the region’s 2009 coarse grains.

Food crises persist in 32 countries around the world. In addition, the food situation is of particular concern in the Gaza Strip as a result of the recent conflict, FAO said.

FAO’s latest forecast for the 2008/09 (July/June) marketing year points to further increases in the use of cereals for biofuels production – a total of 104 million tonnes, up 22 percent from the 2007/08 estimated level, representing 4.6 percent of world cereal production.

FAO