Dreamliners and Peak Oil

SYNOPSIS: ‘AT BREAK OF DAY all dreams, they say, are true.’ So wrote the great English poet John Dryden (1631 – 1700) in his work entitled The Spanish Friar. The implication, of course, is that as the day wears on the press of reality prevents some dreams from being fulfilled. This is an article about airplanes, but it also concerns the dreams that animateprogress.

The Realm of Dreams and Dreamliners

Dryden’s observation about dreams “at break of day” provides a suitable introduction to discuss an important development in one of the world’s key high technology industries, the aptly named Boeing 787 “Dreamliner” aircraft. The B-787 is being designed and built for a future world economic environment of, among other things, high priced fuel. In many respects this new aircraft is a dream at break of day, at the dawn of the post-Peak Oil world. This aircraft is where advanced technology confronts Peak Oil. If there is any test by which to gauge whether or not the promise of so-called “technology” can overcome the challenges of Peak Oil, the Dreamliner is it.

Peak Oil and Fuel Prices

But first, let’s discuss Peak Oil. Predictions of high priced fuel in the future are, in most respects, a reflection of Peak Oil. Peak Oil is a means of thinking about a critical geological concept. That concept is based on the powerful evidence that mankind has reached a “peak” in its ability to extract and recover the relatively light, relatively sweet rock oil of the planet through the use of traditional industrial methods of recovery. Peak Oil is also a shorthand way of stating the mathematical calculation that about half of all of the conventional oil in the crust of the Earth has been located and pumped from the ground. From the standpoint of availability energy in the form of liquid crude oil, things are going to change and change profoundly. But you probably know that.

Modern, and certainly Western-style economic life is based on the ready availability of large quantities of relatively cheap, sweet, easily refined petroleum. This is what has evolved over the past 140 years or so. We are all both products and prisoners of history.

Absent the happy state of affairs brought about by relatively cheap and available supplies of oil, the economies and societies of the world will have to rebalance themselves to function at a lower average energy state. The immediate impact of the peaking of conventional oil production is that the price of oil has steadily risen, and people and industries are in turn switching to lower-quality substitutes. But using substitutes, such as heavy oil, tar sand, converted coal and other fossil carbon deposits, means that consumers, businesses and governments everywhere will have to pay more money, and invest more capital, to recover less net energy.

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