Doubt over climate change forecasts

TORSHAVN, Faeroe Islands – From the deck of a research ship moored in these gusty north Atlantic islands, workers are offloading three bright orange buoys whose sonar devices will help Bogi Hansen fill more gaps in an intriguing twist on climate change forecasts.

For the past year, the Faeroese scientist’s sonar has been pinging the Gulf Stream, the warm ocean current that has kept this subpolar archipelago unfrozen for centuries. His findings are of big interest because they contradict one of the most catastrophic predictions linked to global warming: that Arctic melting will strangle the Gulf Stream, thrusting Europe into a new Ice Age.


In fact, Hansen’s research and recent climate models raise a tantalizing possibility: Can the slight weakening of the Gulf Stream expected over the next century actually help to offset the effects of global warming in northern Europe?

Some scientists think so.

“We will benefit a little bit from this,” said Helge Drange, of the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center in Bergen, Norway, a researcher who builds climate models. “Instead of warming of 3-4 degrees C (5-7 F), we may get 2-3 degrees C (4-5 F) in northwestern Europe.”

AP