Do Your Homework

I am amazed that those of us in the peak oil community have been able to come to any consensus or perception regarding the dilemma before us, considering the amount of inaccurate and conflicting information that has been spread in front of us. Were this 20 years ago without the power of the internet, I’m certain none of us would have any awareness of peak oil. Our perception would be that the glass is full, unless somehow told otherwise.

We are all familiar with the question, “is the glass half empty, or half full?” Perception of the economic and energy environment around us elicits the same wide spectrum of responses, even though the information we are receiving is similar. Many will perceive no existing problem; “the earth is half full of fossil fuel resources”. Another group will be alarmed; their perception is that “the earth is half empty of fossil fuel resources”. There is yet another group that will see nothing at all; they are consumed by their own personal issues or the trivia of life.

If the information we were receiving were unbiased and not manipulated for political or corporate purposes, perception of the economic or energy environment could be debated intelligently. However, our perception is being manipulated along with the information that we are receiving. There is an old saying in the information technology world; “garbage in—garbage out”. It is very difficult to perceive an understanding of a complete situation if we have only partial information, or if the available public information is corrupted.

On June 1, 2009 Air France flight 447 departed Brazil en-route to Paris. Halfway through the flight something went terribly wrong and the aircraft was lost with all 228 on board. Subsequent recovery of the flight data recorder from the bottom of the Atlantic this spring revealed that multiple airspeed sensors had iced over, with each sensor reporting erroneous airspeed readings. The autopilot computers were programmed to disengage when multiple conflicting readings were detected and revert to manual control. The experienced pilots could not perceive the aircraft’s true condition from the erroneous and conflicting information, thus the aircraft remained in a dangerous attitude that several minutes later resulted in its crash.

We have great difficulty today developing an accurate perception of our own energy and economic environment. Like the highly experienced pilots of the ill fated Air France flight, we are being bombarded with wildly gyrating information. Crude oil prices are up, but the price at the pump is way down. Corporate profits are down but the market is up. The economy is recovering but more people are unemployed. Even “experts” are confused because energy and the economy are in unusual positions not seen before.

Fortunately, we in the peak oil community have been exposed to some highly trained and experienced people who have worked as detectives piecing together the information needed, allowing us to do our own homework regarding upcoming dilemmas, and their possible personal impacts. Our general knowledge will not guarantee that we remain calm when the majority is panicking. What our declining economic and energy homework will do, is allow us to make wiser choices today.

The peak oil community has perceived for a long time that turmoil would accompany declining energy, and that the economy would mirror that turmoil. Keep searching out information, to help you formulate your plans. Try to be an observer of the turmoil and panic, not a participant.

It appears the turmoil has begun, or is very close.

Chuck
Peak Oil Blues