Deffeyes on the NPC report

In my view, the halftime show is over, we’re now into the second half.

On July 18, 2007, the National Petroleum Council posted a major report on the Internet with the title “Facing the Hard Truths about Energy.” The NPC report, two years in preparation, is in response to a request from the US Secretary of Energy. The report is posted at www.npc.org/Facing_Hard_Truths-71087.pdf. In its pdf format, the report runs to 422 pages and 12.59 megabytes. In the Internet version, the page numbers start anew for each chapter. In my comments below, the page numbers are the consecutive numbers in the pdf file.

Each page of the NPC report carries a heading “DRAFT – Do not quote or cite.” The New York Times for July 19 carried an illicit advanced review of the seventh Harry Potter book and a Times article by Jad Mouawad that quoted and cited the NPC report. Mouawad almost made me choke on my morning coffee with his comment that the report “dismisses predictions from so-called peak oil theorists that the world’s oil deposits are on the decline . . .” I’ve been going around calling myself “so-called Ken.”


Many of the NPC report’s authors are from the major oil companies. In one sense, that’s an advantage. The majors are big powerful organizations and it would help all of us to know what they are thinking. (I realize the possibility that they have written what they hope we will think.) The overall chairman of the study is Lee Raymond, former chairman of ExxonMobil. The chairman of the oil supply subcommittee is David O’Reilly, CEO and Chairman of the Board of Chevron. They don’t get any bigger. In addition to the major companies, the NPC sought a wide range of other opinions.

Of course, my first action was to do a Washington (DC) read: Did my name appear in the report? Yes, I’m credited with dot #99 on Figure S2-2, page 139. My estimate of the world oil endowment, two trillion barrels, is the lowest of the recent estimates. The graph doesn’t point out that one trillion barrels have already been produced and burned. In my view, the halftime show is over, we’re now into the second half.

Hubbert’s Peak, Current Events