Deffeyes: Feedback Loops

Jeff Vail posted on www.theoildrum.com/node/3017 a list of feedback loops that would diminish oil availability after the oil peak. Vail’s piece is thoughtful. I highly recommend reading it, preferably before reading my comments about it.

Vail identifies five feedbacks from a diminished oil supply that would make the problem even worse. I’ll take the risk of stating them briefly:

1. Damage to oil supply facilities can be done cheaply, compared to the impact of the damage. (Apparently to make it easier for the terrorist, the US E.I.A. posts a rank-ordered list of US oil refineries at www.eia.doe.gov/neic/rankings/refineries.htm.)

2. If high international oil “prices are insane,” then oil producing countries would reserve their own production for domestic use.

3. High oil prices can raise national incomes in oil-exporting nations, thereby increasing domestic oil consumption.

4. Oil-producing regions within nations would try to secede in order for a smaller population to enjoy the wealth.

5. Privateering: Profit-motivated gangs replace politically-motivated terrorists.

In the opposite direction are the classical feedback loops from Econ 101…

Hubbert’s Peak, Current Events