Decline Rates and Non-OPEC Supply

Every year, baseball starts up in the Spring and there are rosy forecasts for supply growth in the non-OPEC oil supply. 2007 is no exception. Wood Mackenzie’s Non-OPEC Increases to Continue in 2007 announces the good news.

The strong upward momentum for non-OPEC supply, seen in the fourth quarter of 2006 [when Dalia in offshore Angola came onstream] is expected to be maintained in 2007. The rate of increase is likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter of the year, when production is expected to be 1.6 million b/d higher than in the fourth quarter of 2006.

Total non-OPEC oil/NGL production, including Angola, is forecast to average 50.2 million b/d in 2007 according to Wood Mackenzie, up 1.5 million b/d from 2006. Patrick Gibson, Principal Oil Supply Analyst for Wood Mackenzie said “Our analysis shows that there will be significant increases in the FSU states, North America and Africa. The main areas that will experience decline are the North Sea and the Asia Pacific region.