Debating energy scenarios for India

Scenarios are a planning tool for navigating through the complex of socio-economic, political and technological forces that influence the business and policy environment. They are not forecasts, but descriptions of alternate worlds. Their utility lies in providing different contexts for discussion and judgement. They facilitate longer-term perspectives and are particularly useful for businesses like energy with a long gestation period. India should debate its energy policy within such a framework.

Shell recently published its new global scenarios. The company prepares such scenarios every three years. Traditionally, it has described two alternate worlds. In the 1990s, for instance, it described a world driven by the forces of market liberalisation, globalisation and technical change. And another by the compulsions of community and social aspirations. In 2001, it wrote two new scenarios.

Financial Express