Curse of ancient Rome hangs over modern societies

Over time, all societies face problems of various kinds. In The Collapse of Complex Societies, Joseph Tainter advances the argument that societies respond to most problems by increasing societal complexity.

Generally, an increase in complexity results in an increase in energy expenditure. Initially, the benefits of complexity outweigh the additional expenditure. Over time, however, the costs will outweigh the benefits. In other words, the energy return on investment decreases. This is calculated by dividing the amount of energy a project produces by the amount it consumes.


Broadly, Tainter makes two points. First, complexity is expensive. Second, a society’s investment in complexity to solve its problems eventually produces “diminishing marginal returns”. In other words, at some point an additional investment in complexity provides fewer benefits than the immediately preceding investment.

Tainter illustrates his theory by applying it to the Roman Empire.

Like any ancient society, Rome was powered, in essence, by the sun’s energy. It was a food-based energy system. Photosynthesis converted sunlight into energy suitable for human consumption in the form of agricultural produce.

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