Current population growth not sustainable

… Most recently, the global population doubled in only 46 years. There are now close to 7 billion humans. So how are the resources to sustain an exponentially growing population holding up? Let’s look at just one of them — oil.

Inhabitants of the United States literally eat oil. Oil is necessary to make the fertilizer and pesticides used on our crops; to irrigate them; and to fuel the machinery used to plant, cultivate, and harvest them. In one study conducted in 1994, it was calculated that feeding each American each year required the equivalent of 400 gallons of oil, exclusive of the energy, mainly oil,
needed for packaging, refrigeration, transportation, and cooking. The authors calculated that for every calorie of food energy delivered to the consumer, 10 calories of other energy, mostly oil, are required. The lesson is clear: Without oil we starve.

So how fares the oil basket into which we have put so many eggs? Well, it’s looking quite frail. Oil is a limited resource. Each successful well exhibits an early rise in production, a tapering off as production reaches a maximum (peak), and a decline until it is no longer economical to pump more. As with each well, so with entire fields and world production as a whole. U.S. production peaked in 1970.

Oil production is already irreversibly declining in at least 54 of the 65 most important producing countries, and information from OPEC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, is sketchy and suspect. At the beginning of August, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency, which monitors oil supply and demand, stated that the IEA believes world production may peak by 2020 and that an oil crunch is possible any time after 2010. Other experts believe the peak is already here.

As oil becomes scarcer and more expensive, so will food. Every new mouth will put more pressure on the resource.

The Salt Lake Tribune