Crystal Balls and Gasoline Prices

This Week In Petroleum

Forecasting, as anyone engaged in such efforts will say, is either an art or a very inexact science. While predicting the weather, or the winner of the NCAA basketball tournament, may be even more difficult than forecasting energy prices, the process is similar: you look at historical patterns, tendencies, and relationships, and make a “best guess” at some future outcome, based on the evidence you see today…

…the general idea is very simple: retail price changes in the immediate future can be predicted by looking at recent spot price changes.

So what does this relationship say about gasoline prices over the next few weeks?
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Spot prices at

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