Crystal ball needed to predict oil direction

Accordingly, economic forces point to further declines in oil pricing in the next couple of years – a reasonable forecast would be for a long-term reference plane of $35-$45, although prices seem likely to fluctuate around the $50-$60 plateau for some time while spare capacity is being rebuilt.

The bottom line? Forecasting the price of oil is still a risky business. With little by way of excess supply at present, any economic, political or climatic disturbance could send prices back into the seventies.

But at least the laws of economics are regaining some traction in the oil marketplace.

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