CRUDE OIL : THE SUPPLY OUTLOOK

The main purpose of this paper is to project the future availability of crude oil up to 2030.
Since crude oil is the most important energy carrier at a global scale and since all kinds of
transport rely heavily on oil, the future availability of crude oil is of paramount interest. At
present, widely diverging projections exist in parallel which would require completely
different actions by politics, business and individuals.

The scope of these projections is similar to that of the World Energy Outlook by the
International Energy Agency (IEA). However, no assumptions or projections regarding the oil
price are made.
World oil production between 1935 and 2005 and the extrapolation up to 2030 as projected by
the authors is sketched in Figure 40. This includes natural gas liquids (NGL) and oil from tar
sands.

According to this scenario, peak oil occured in 2006 with a peak production of 81 Mb/d.

Extensive report (PDF) from Energy Watch Group