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Page added on May 26, 2020
Covid is not the only crisis in town, here are six others
Important information: The value of investments and the income from them, can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest.
This article first appeared in the Telegraph
Three months ago, my wife and I were enjoying a week driving round the Alentejo region of Portugal, eating in busy little restaurants and averting our gaze from what looked like a nasty situation developing in northern Italy. So much of that week seems to belong to another world. Not least, what investors were thinking about before everything else was eclipsed by our single-minded focus on Covid-19 and its implications for the economy and markets.
Six stories, in particular, mattered a great deal In February before slipping off the radar in the weeks since then. But they haven’t gone away and all of them came back last week to remind us that there’s more to the market outlook than the pandemic.
At the beginning of the year, trade tensions were top of the agenda for investors, with hopes for a partial resolution of the Sino-US stand-off driving the market to a new all-time high. With the US Presidential election only six months away, there was always a danger that America would start to flex its muscles towards China again as soon as the corona-crisis began to ease.
There is not much that the Republicans and Democrats agree on, but there is clear bi-partisan support for pushing back on China and the provenance of Covid-19 has provided an open-door for both parties to push on. If anything, the anti-China rhetoric has broadened beyond trade in goods to include financial flows ($6bn of federal retirement funds won’t now be invested in Chinese stocks), a capital war (China may be disinclined to finance America’s $1trn deficit) and export restrictions (sorry Huawei).
Back in February, another story that was front of mind was Britain’s newly-secured exit from the EU. All that remained was the small matter of agreeing a trade deal by the end of 2020. Well, when was the last time you uttered the word Brexit? If ever there was a story we were happy to push off the front pages, this was it. But it’s back and it doesn’t look any prettier than it did.
It is hard to imagine a worse outcome than a no-deal Brexit at the end of the year. But, with no-one really watching the stalled negotiations, and all the old hurdles to a decent deal still firmly in place, that looks increasingly where we are headed. It was a bad idea three months ago. It is a worse one today as the free-trade world in which Global Britain was expected to thrive retreats into national and regional bunkers and we navigate the deepest recession since the 1930s.
If the Government is using the cover of Covid to push through its chosen Brexit, it is not alone in seeing a useful opportunity. Beijing understands the value of a distraction, too, and it is using Hong Kong as a way of diverting attention from its handling of the corona-crisis and its abandonment of a GDP growth target. Last year, markets were transfixed by violence on the streets of Asia’s premier financial hub. On Friday, they started to worry again as the National People’s Congress laid out plans to ‘improve’ national security in the former colony. The 5.6% fall in the Hang Seng index was the worst daily decline in five years as investors fretted about the city’s status in the region and its future trading relationship with the US.
The fourth story that would have dominated the financial pages in recent weeks had it not been overshadowed by the pandemic is the collapse in the oil price. The two stories are inseparable, of course, because a key driver of the plunge in the cost of crude, to zero and beyond for one brief and unprecedented moment, is the temporary shut-down of the global economy. The flip-side of those beautiful clear blue skies and empty roads has been a market awash in surplus oil.
The oil story is also inextricably linked to a fifth theme that seemed much more pressing in February than maybe it does now, but which has categorically not gone away – climate change. The outlook for oil companies may have improved marginally in the near-term as the price of both Brent and WTI rises above $30 a barrel. But, as BP’s boss Bernard Loomey recently said, we may have already passed the moment of peak oil demand. It was interesting, early in the market’s corona-correction that the relative performance of stocks rated highly on environmental, social and governance factors was noticeably stronger than those that scored poorly on these measures.
The final story pre-dated the health crisis in other parts of the world, notably in the rest of Europe, but it is thanks to Covid-19 that it has now become a hot topic for investors here. We thought negative interest rates was something they did in terminally stagnant economies like the Eurozone and Japan, but last week new Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey admitted that they could be on the way in Britain too.
With the base rate at a 300-year low of 0.1%, and the economy on the brink of an unprecedented recession, charging investors to deposit their cash in the bank no longer seems so fanciful, even if there’s little conviction that it is really a good idea.
When people ask whether there is a disconnect between the stock market’s rally from March’s low point and the economic reality, they are thinking almost exclusively about the impact on growth, jobs and profits of the lockdown. While they are right to focus on this mismatch, the past week has shown that there is a pretty long queue of other challenges vying for investors’ attention. Markets struggle to focus on more than one big story at a time, but we’ll need to if we want to understand where they go from here.
104 Comments on "Covid is not the only crisis in town, here are six others"
makati1 on Tue, 26th May 2020 9:40 pm
if you play roulette in the Stock Market Casino, you deserve what you get. What goes up must come down and, maybe, fast. Enjoy fools! LOL
JuanP on Tue, 26th May 2020 11:48 pm
Mak, you are lso a fool and getting old. The laugh is on you.
Theedrich on Wed, 27th May 2020 12:42 am
The U.S. is turning man into a criminal species. With its historically attested use of atomic weapons to murder civilian populations, and its Yid-led, maniacal spread of business-as-usual to miscegenate the races, it is dooming the planet. It pays Mohammedan suicide cults to act as its proxies in overthrowing its target regimes; it preaches drivel about “values” which, it turns out, accidentally coincide with the profit-yielding interests of the oligarchs who bribe its leaders; it puts race traitors like Angela Merkel and genosuicidist elites into control of subjugated nations such as Germany; and its covers these and other planetary crimes with the slaver of Yid-Christian fantasies dredged up out of primitive biblical scribblings.
Currently it is painting China as a theological evil. Never mind that England led a couple of Opium Wars against China in order to capture Hong Kong as its port for injecting narcotics into that civilization. Or that America and the rest of the West has already sold its soul to Chinkland for a mess of pottage, and will never get it back. (Our government is also accusing China of being the only country — gasp! — that knows how to deal with Mohammedans.) Added to this is the concurrent demonization of Russia for defending itself against American plans to wipe that nation off the map. Plus the U.S.-caused invasion of Europe by sludge from Africa and Allahland.
America loves to slaughter peoples who refuse to be subject to it. Its preference is killing Whites; but lacking an effective excuse, any other race or hybrid type will do. It is the primary threat to earth’s mult-billion-year bioevolution. It seeks the extinction of all higher life on the planet for a few moments of riches and power.
We can only hope that Mother Earth, whatever religious title she is honored under, will stop the Empire before it achieves its goal.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 27th May 2020 1:58 am
America will come to its end (in its present shape) in the South China Sea, a slaughter party that will prompt a Yankee uprising in their own home land. The birth of a new planetary hegemon China will prompt the Europeans and Russians to hastily set up a counter force PBM, that will fill the American power vacuum. European, Russian, British, Mexican, US-white nationalist and ZOG-bot forces and even Chinese troops will roam the North-American country-side-turned in an XXL-Yugoslavia, until new, race-based countries will crystallize from the chaos.
The progressive, globalist, essentially Jewish 20th century will finally come to and end and a new post-Marxist, Huntingtonian, identitarian, reactionary-traditional world order, based on racial and religious identity, will emerge from the rubble of WW3.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 27th May 2020 5:18 am
“Can’t we all just get along?”-latest:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8360145/Police-riot-gear-spray-tear-gas-fire-rubber-bullets-protest-George-Floyds-death.html
“Police in riot gear fire rubber bullets and tear gas at thousands of protesters demanding the arrest of four white Minneapolis cops involved in the death of black man George Floyd”
Inter-ethnic temperature further up.
Davy on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:03 am
“America will come to its end (in its present shape) in the South China Sea, a slaughter party that will prompt a Yankee uprising in their own home land.”
LOL, cloggo and his Anglo Derangement is hilarious and the fact he repeats it twice a week even more absurd.
Davy on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:04 am
“Inter-ethnic temperature further up.”
Steam blows off in the US but in Eurroland it is building constantly for the big one.
Davy on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:18 am
It is my opinion we are in globalism2 and that is not good for the cloggo’s export dependent euroland:
“Has Globalization Passed Its Peak?”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/has-globalization-passed-its-peak
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2020-05-26_14-04-57.jpg?itok=Vh4Pdc5j
“Following the trade decline caused by the global financial crisis in 2009, world trade never returned to its previous growth trajectory and many are expecting a similar long-term effect of the current crisis. Having reminded many companies of the vulnerabilities of global supply chains, both the pandemic and the trade war between the U.S. and China could lead companies towards a more domestic approach to production and sourcing, which might result in a sustained reduction of global trade.”
JuanP on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:22 am
Over 40% Of Brits Claim They’ve “Changed For The Better” During Lockdowns
A new study revealed that 43% of people feel they’ve “changed their ways for the better” as a result of the extra time they had during coronavirus lockdowns. Many found new habits and activities — including creating podcasts, learning to code, and exercising. The study, commissioned by LG Electronics, polled nearly 2,000 British adults of how their daily lives were transformed because of the lockdowns. About half of the respondents said they would maintain the newly acquired hobbies, skills, and daily habits in a post-corona world.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/over-40-brits-claim-theyve-changed-better-during-lockdowns
REAL Green on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:37 am
Davy,
Do the world a huge favor. Eat shit and die already.
Davy on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:50 am
JuanP on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:37 am
“Davy, Do the world a huge favor. Eat shit and die already.”
I love to see you squirm you disgusting piece of shit. You fucked with the wrong person didn’t you! LMFAO Now I am force feeding you your lunatic shit. Enjoy fuckwack!
l on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:22 am
supertards
i cant breath
please love supremacist muzzies and love supertard
Sock Buster on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:25 am
I = juanPee the lunatic
Deport the bastard
l on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:44 am
supertards
pls cover your mouth and wrap up ur deek with tape. beervirus swim against the peestream when u pee, so never pee.
please love supremacist muzzies and love supertard davy
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:51 am
“And yet, despite all this horror imposed by the West, China and Russia are blooming.
North America and Europe are in panic. They are literally shaking. Their elites are in total overdrive, trying to invent new formulas, new insults, to stain the two global front runners.
The greatest fear they have is: what if the rest of the world were to notice? What if some countries were to begin switching sides, alliances. And some countries are doing precisely that! Everything is suddenly changing, evolving. Things are now being discussed, in the Philippines and Mexico, in Kenya and in so many other places.”
https://journal-neo.org/2020/05/26/in-the-west-propaganda-hysteria-and-truly-foul-breath/
The power is in the East now. Too bad Amerika!
Agenda Buster on Wed, 27th May 2020 8:23 am
Journal neo is a Russian propaganda tool and the Mak the wack slurps it up
Davy on Wed, 27th May 2020 8:56 am
Were real glad we built are monestary of doom. Amurika is goin down. REAL Hard
Davy on Wed, 27th May 2020 9:10 am
JuanP on Wed, 27th May 2020 8:56 am
Oh, juanpeon, same old shit another lunatic day. I love fucking with you. You deserve it.
Abraham van Helsing on Wed, 27th May 2020 9:27 am
Globalist tech and the two left coast’s against the Heartland:
“Head of Twitter’s ‘site integrity’ in charge of fact-checking Trump has previously tweeted the administration are Nazis, compared Kellyanne Conway to Joseph Goebbels and said fly over states are racist”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8361349/Head-Twitters-fact-checking-history-anti-Trump-tweets.html
Message to Twitter-fart-checking head (((Yoel Roth))): the Heartland is not going to change in the manner you would like to see happening.
https://twitter.com/yoyoel
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 27th May 2020 11:00 am
All these lockdowns and extreme measures. You are “breaking presidents”. That is why it’s called “unprecedented”.
American’s have never lost their freedom since the founding. And they even shut down the churches which has never happened in our history.
REAL Green on Wed, 27th May 2020 11:19 am
The to smartest guys on the bored are Theedrich and cloggo. There comments at 12:42 and 1:58 are so good were gonna copy and paste them on are own stupid blog.
SocialRevolutionComing on Wed, 27th May 2020 11:33 am
They really pushing that COVID hoax. EU parliament members wearing masks. We had 15 years to prepare for PO. Now it is too late and people hate politicians. This will finish in social revolution.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vftbgUMAz1w
Sock Buster on Wed, 27th May 2020 12:52 pm
SocialRevolutionComing on Wed, 27th May 2020 11:33 am
should read:
JuanP on Wed, 27th May 2020 11:33 am
ID theft Buster on Wed, 27th May 2020 12:53 pm
This is from JuanP:
REAL Green on Wed, 27th May 2020 11:19 am
The to smartest guys on the bored are Theedrich and cloggo. There comments at 12:42 and 1:58 are so good were gonna copy and paste them on are own stupid blog.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 27th May 2020 3:56 pm
2020 may equal 2018 in total mortality; why did we destroy the economy over this?
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 27th May 2020 5:52 pm
We wouldn’t need to surrender our rights if the pandemic was real, since we would see people falling ill, and our fear of sickness would enforce a quarantine, without needing to surrender our natural rights, only a fake pandemic requires surrender of our rights.
We know the pandemic is fake since they had to take people’s rights away to create a false crisis. The loss of liberty alone creates a real crisis to stand in for the fake pandemic.
If there really was a pandemic you wouldn’t need the lockdown, since people would see others falling ill, and voluntarily not leave their house, no violation of rights is necessary for keeping one from jumping from great heights etc. because it is real it enforces itself, so there need be no law banning our movements during pandemics since real pandemics enforce their own laws by the power of their deadly nature
The only pandemic that needs suspending of liberties is a fake pandemic, these are pandemics of testing positive as asymptomatic carriers, which is no power of nature
Therefore their lockdown defies natural law and common sense, is not useful for any situation foreseeable, and is a form of economic war on our country, the emperor has no clothes: the shelves are full of products, the nurses are being laid off, the hospitals are empty.
Anonymouse on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:35 pm
DT, I dont pay any attention to the JuanP sock puppet that he uses to speak in gibberish. I dont know anyone else that does either. So what a ‘muzzie’ is supposed to be, is something only known to JuanP multiple ‘personalities’, such as they are. And since no one gives a shit what JuanP lunatic socks are doing, it will hopefully remain one of those mysteries you never cared to uncover.
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:36 pm
so true anon, love, so true
SocialRevolutionComing on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:40 pm
The health brigades fully mobilized in Paris
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxfLlJjNbJo
Western civilization is done. It is over. There is no coming back, you cannot build a society with fear, fear destroy civilization and progress. So funny watching the world self destroy.
It is in French, but funny to see them in full ppe
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:48 pm
Right On Anon! I don’t read any of Demented Delusional juanP sock puppet posts. Pure waste of time. They only prove his insanity. Obviously, he has no life. If we are lucky, he will become a flu statistic? kisses sweets
SocialRevolutionComing on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:50 pm
Miami is slowly shutting down, too. Restaurants are not now allowed outdoor seating, some parks have opened, and the beach will open soon. Some other businesses are not reopening, too, like realtors and hair salons. Traffic is not almost back to normal. There are only traffic jams at COVID testing and food giveaway locations, though, so not yet back to normal. I will never be normal
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:52 pm
Why would anyone live in a shithole like Miami Beach? Queers and lunatics are all that is there.
DT on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:52 pm
Mak, could I get you number I want to leave Miami Beach. I hate it here.
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 6:53 pm
You can look me up on facebook at Billy T McGee
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:27 pm
$21M Brooklyn field hospital never saw a patient amid coronavirus pandemic
https://nypost.com/2020/05/22/brooklyn-field-hospital-never-saw-a-coronavirus-patient/
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:40 pm
6:48 pm, my last post here. Others are fake, as usual.
makati1 on Wed, 27th May 2020 7:55 pm
Anyone wanting to move to the land of eternal summer, the Philippines, are too late. The borders are still closed to anyone not Filipino. Even when it reopens, it will not be easy.
IF you could get here, it would cost $1,000/year plus plus for each person to be a “tourist” which requires you to go to Manila and re-register every two months and leave the country every three years.
If you are over 35, you could get a special visa by investing at least $50,000 per person, if you have a family, in the Philippines Stock Market or business. You cannot own land here, but can lease it, long term, and build a home on it. You cannot own more than 49% of a business. And on and on.
https://pra.gov.ph/srrv/
In other words, if you are not over 50, and retired, with an adequate income, it is not easy to move here. An SRRV costs ~$10,000 for those over 50 and I am not a “tourist” so I do not have to renew my visa every two months (saves that $1,000++ and Manila trip) or leave the country, ever. A plus for being “old”. ^_^
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 27th May 2020 9:00 pm
What virus?
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 27th May 2020 9:29 pm
Its about OIL running out soon! And they can’t let the people know or they will go totally insane!
And they will say “Why didn’t you warn us?”
World Oil Shortages To Lead To Oil Price Spike By 2020s, warns Goldman Sachs VP
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Supply-Crunch-To-Lead-To-Oil-Price-Spike-By-2020s-Expert-Says.html
IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead
https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-minister-sees-end-of-oil-price-slump-1476870790
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 29th May 2020 6:43 am
Dying from Covid means your immune system was too weak.
How to strengthen your immune system? Here the British Eurovision Songfestival entry-2020 (wasn’t broadcast because of Covid) with the Dutch Iceman Wim Hof:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iS-lV909T4
Solution? Kill your inner hedonist, re-Romanize! Revitalize! Abandon your permanent comfort zone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wim_Hof
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 29th May 2020 7:27 am
Minnepolis and Aleppo: try to find the ten differences:
https://9gag.com/gag/aQd8yze
Holy Cow!, as Baghdad Peter Arnett would say. Complete war zone.
White bolsheviks (Dems-voters) are damaging too:
https://img-9gag-fun.9cache.com/photo/adVjR1j_460svav1.mp4
Signs on shop-doors: “Black-owned”.
And all George Floyd wanted to do shortly before was helping an old white lady crossing the street.
“Buy two, get two free.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lk5c2o85Iuw
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 29th May 2020 7:56 am
“China threatens to ATTACK Taiwan: One of Beijing’s most senior generals warns the military will use force if there is no other way to stop island becoming independent”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8368627/China-threatens-ATTACK-Taiwan.html
Coinciding with Minneapolis a coincidence?
Background: Taiwanese public display of solidarity with Hong Kong.
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 29th May 2020 9:37 am
Kunstler – Ominous Convergence
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/ominous-convergence/
Once cycles of violence are set in motion, they are very difficult to stop. The animosities between different groups in the USA are not so different in character from what’s been seen in other places around the world in recent times: the strife in Northern Ireland, the breakup of Yugoslavia, the civil war in Lebanon, the factional fighting in Libya, Syria, Iraq. All of them grew out of quests for cosmic justice, and all of those conflicts produced lasting damage to the societies they inflamed.
Hurry up with your EU-army, mr Macron. We are going to need it. The hour of Europe has arrived. The geopolitical polarity reversal US-EU is within reach.
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:02 am
The lock-down very well has an effect. Sweden now has highest death rate per capita… because there was no lock-down:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8369241/Sweden-highest-death-rate-capita-country-world-week-data-shows.html
joe on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:13 am
Death rate per million still low though. That health care system is pulling its weight. Nothing to see here folks, move along.
Davy on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:35 am
“Hurry up with your EU-army, mr Macron. We are going to need it. The hour of Europe has arrived. The geopolitical polarity reversal US-EU is within reach.”
LMFAO, cloggo, Eurotards have worse problems than the US with your cities in turmoil. This MINN event will blow over jut like Ferguson did. Anytime these things happen you have a premature ejaculation. It really is hilarious.
JuanP on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:36 am
so true Davy so true
REAL Green on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:43 am
So true Pink Poodle. So true.
Nutter on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:43 am
So true REAL Green. So true.
Davy on Fri, 29th May 2020 10:45 am
So true Nutter. So true.