Clarke’s Wager

Some 350 years ago, mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal argued that it is better to wager for the existence of God than against it since the benefits of believing in God are so great. The argument became known as Pascal’s Wager. Today, author Duncan Clarke asks us to make a kind of inverted Pascal’s Wager in favor of continued abundance in world oil supplies. Is it a good bet?


A recent public exchange between David Strahan, author of The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man, and Duncan Clarke, author of The Battle for Barrels: Peak Oil Myths & World Oil Futures, illustrates a key point in the debate over the timing and consequences of world peak oil production. Peak oil, for those who are hearing about it for the first time, is the point after which world oil production will begin to fall irreversibly. It should be obvious that if that point is nearby, we could be in for huge and perhaps catastrophic difficulties. We are just not ready. But if the peak is far away, then perhaps we have time to find alternatives and adapt our economies to a world without oil. In brief, this debate matters, and it matters greatly.

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