China's booming car sales, falling gas usage stump analysts

Data ‘disconnect’ prompts suspicion, closer look at gasoline consumption

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — A sharp rise in Chinese car sales and vehicle ownership hasn’t been reflected in nationwide gasoline consumption this year, an anomaly that has some analysts scratching their heads in the search for answers.

The disconnect has sparked a range of possible explanations, and even some suspicious musings: One such theory goes that Beijing and its state-owned enterprises are using stimulus funds to buy up new vehicles to subsidize local car makers, with the vehicles then hidden away or turned back into scrap metal.

Standard Chartered stepped into the debate with a recent research note entitled “Mysterious Gas,” focusing on what is driving the nation’s growing car ownership, which is on track to grow by nearly 25% this year.

“Car sales in China are booming [in the third quarter], but gasoline sales seem to be stuck in the slow lane,” wrote Standard Chartered analysts headed by Stephen Green in Shanghai.

The Standard Chartered analysts rejected the “left to rust” theory, which suggests China’s government is the buyer of last resort. More likely, Green said, Chinese consumers are being rational. They are driving less — even as they buy more cars — as high fuel prices and slower income growth force households to manage their regular expenses wisely.

MarketWatch