CERA – a peak oiler in the making?

CERA has over the years been extremely optimistic regarding future expansion of liquids capacity. They also have belittled and ridiculed those who disagreed, particularly with the notion that we will soon see a Peak Oil scenario. It is therefore with some surprise you read the various CERA reports in chronology and you realize that CERA is presently gliding away from previous strongly held beliefs and setting the stage for joining the Peak Oil community.

Astonishing downward revisions.

If you look at a report they presented in October last year (Filling the Hopper), their capacity tables show a brisk growth from 92.4 million b/d in 2008 to 114.4 million b/d in 2015. Then they project almost a plateau until 2020 (113.7 million b/d). If you look at crude alone, it actually declines between 2015 and 2020. It certainly looks like a Peak Oil scenario.


Even more astonishing is a report presented at a conference in London last December (Recession Shock) where they slashed their own October numbers. In the December report global capacity in 2008 was reduced from the October estimate of 92.4 million b/d to 90.2 million b/d.

Global capacity forecast for 2010 was reduced from 99.3 to 94,2 million b/d, for 2015 was revised down from 111,4 million b/d to 98,6 million b/d, and for 2020 from 113.7 million b/d to 103.3 million b/d. In their 2005 report,