Car crazy

…The thing to keep in mind about motorized vehicles is that almost everyone on Earth who can afford one wants one. The IEA’s WEO 2007 oil fact sheet gives the usual demand-driven result: the world will want to consume 116 million barrels per day of oil in 2030. The desire for transport “is the main driver.” More precisely, the would-be driver is the main driver in every sense of that word.


The WEO 2007’s special focus is on fast-growing energy demand in China and India. The IEA predicts that an astonishing 42% of increased demand for oil will come from those two countries alone, and there is a simple reason for their growing thirst. The IEA expects that GDP will grow in Asia and household incomes will rise accordingly. When incomes rise, people want cars. When people want cars, they require fuel to run them. Therefore we will need 116 million barrels of the stuff everyday, mostly to satisfy our desire to drive. This is the oil part of the IEA’s WEO 2007 in a nutshell.

What makes future growth in demand for cars predictable? To answer this question, it is necessary to look at the methodology and assumptions used by the IEA to construct the WEO and specifically, the transport sector module (p. 9). Things get a bit technical here, but don’t worry.

Energy Bulletin