Can OPEC and Non OPEC Stop the Oil Price Rise?

Since October 2006 world oil demand, as in previous years since 2002-2003 has fallen away from the Summer Demand Peak. During the July-August 2006 summer peak, world oil demand on a wide all liquids base probably hit at least 87.5 Mbd.

Prices also hit all-time nominal records, around 78 USD/bbl. This was however lower than the absolute purchasing power corrected oil price peak, attained during the 1979-1981 Oil Shock, at about 110 USD/bbl in 2006 dollars. We should note that this only concerned specific and smaller shipments, and at the time no 24-hour world oil market existed.


Pricing and settlement systems utilised in the early 1980s were not strictly comparable with current systems.

World oil demand, at least since about 2002, is now structurally variable. This structural change in the behavior of the world oil market is beginning to be recognized, and traces its origins to several key factors. These include climate change, de-industrialization in most OECD countries reducing year-round national oil demand peaks but raising summer vacation, car driving and airplane travel oil demand peaks, higher oil prices resulting in ‘just-in-time’ buying, reduced physical inventory capacities relative to average daily consumption – and many other smaller factors.

Petroleum World