Can Chavez push oil prices to $200?

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez says oil would shoot to $200 a barrel if the US invaded Iran. He and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are “united like a single fist,” Mr. Chavez said earlier this week.

Does Chavez, with or without Iran’s help, have the power to push oil to $200 a barrel? Can he “tip the world into a recession” as an opinion piece in the Los Angeles Times asserted last week?
Venezuela is the fourth-largest supplier of oil to the US. But despite a concern among some economists that high oil prices will provoke recession, many analysts say that Chavez alone has minimal impact on the how high the price of oil goes. And even as he looks to export oil elsewhere and reduce his dependence on the US, where half of Venezuela’s production is sold, it’s a swap he won’t be able to carry out soon.

“Between those two countries, Venezuela is way more dependent on the US than the US is on Venezuela,” says Roger Tissot, director for Latin America country strategies at PFC Energy, a consulting group.

Christian Science Monitor