Before the flood

The countries of Europe must devise urgent strategies to deal with the consequences of climate change, as our report clearly shows

The risks posed by climate change are real and its impacts are already taking place. This year the vast majority of emergency appeals for humanitarian aid were climate-related. But the risks go far beyond humanitarian crises. Nor is it “just” an environmental challenge, no matter how urgent and important. Climate change also causes serious political and security risks that directly affect European interests. That is why we need to address these together, as Europeans.

This week, I will present a report together with the European commission to European heads of state and government. Its core argument is that climate change is already having a profound impact on international security; that this will intensify in the years ahead; and that we need urgent action to safeguard our own interests.


The most appropriate way of viewing climate change is as a threat multiplier: it aggravates the stresses and strains within and between countries. Climate change threatens to overburden those countries and regions that are already fragile and conflict-prone. The critical variable is governance. How governments will respond to the impacts of climate change depends on how well they resolve conflicts today.

Let me be clear: saying that climate change poses security risks reinforces the need to stick to our commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We cannot give up on mitigation or on ways to adapt to unavoidable climate change. Doing so is tremendously important. But it is not the whole story. Both mitigation and adaptation should go hand in hand with addressing the international security threats of climate change. Both should also be seen as preventive security policy.

Let me highlight just three of the threats posed by climate change.

Guardian