Beating the post-oil drum

THE “PEAK oil” debate is populated by a cult of nuts who are easy to dismiss. But with oil prices over $70 a barrel, with no Katrina and no coup in Saudi Arabia, it starts to look plausible.

“Peak oil” refers to the point after which the world’s oil supply begins to decline permanently toward zero. No one argues whether peak oil will actually happen. Everyone seems to agree that the U.S. supply peaked in 1970. Oil is a finite resource.

The real debate is over when the world peak will hit. On one side, people like Princeton geologist Ken Deffeyes and Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons estimate that peak oil already happened in 2005. On the other side, Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Boston sees “no evidence to suggest a peak before 2020″ and the U.S. Geological Survey in Washington estimates that any peak would occur after 2030.

It isn’t reassuring that the “don’t worry” side of this debate claims we have until 2020 or 2030. Even if they’re right, don’t we still have a problem in less than 25 years?

Philadelphia Daily News