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Page added on November 12, 2015
Asia Faces Fertility Crisis
China is not alone.
The Asian giant recently abandoned its one-child policy. But other Asian countries, seeking to maximize economic growth, are also struggling with population and family-size policies as they cope with lower fertility rates among their population.
However, demographers say socioeconomic changes – not government policies – are the fundamental reasons for low fertility rates and smaller families. Simply setting a population policy that encourages couples to reproduce won’t help much.
“It is not the government’s job to pay people or encourage people to have more children,” said Stuart Basten, associate professor of social policy at the University of Oxford. “But it is the government’s job to make society a better place and to help people in their aspirations to … achieve what they want to achieve. In that way, fertility rates would probably go up.”
Basten, in a telephone interview, noted that fertility rates in northern and Western Europe are relatively high, thanks to generous public assistance benefits.
In many countries, fertility rates are close to 2, which is the replacement level for developed countries. Replacement level ranges from 2.5 to 3.3 for developing countries due to higher mortality rates.
“We don’t have any policy which encourages people to have babies,” Basten said. “We have a lot of policy about childcare, maternity leave, [and a] national health system which supports older people… there is more a supportive atmosphere towards childbearing.”
More than three decades after the one-child policy, China’s working-age population has declined, and the “4-2-1” families – four grandparents, a married couple and their single child – put more burdens on young people growing into adulthood. In the vast country, urbanization brought many rural workers to cities over the past 30 years, and the excess of cheap labor eventually dried up as the cost of living rose. Similarly in Japan, after a decade of low fertility, the country is looking for more young workers and trying to attract more women to its labor force.
India, however, with a population rivaling China’s, has a different problem. The Indian government has been unable to bring down its fertility rate. The country simply doesn’t have enough jobs for its young people and has insufficient social care for its older population, which is also growing.
(In the United States, the fertility rate has stayed at about 2 since 1989, meaning on average women of childbearing age would have two children. However, rates have dropped a little since the financial crisis in 2008. The rate stood at 1.86 percent in 2013, according to Population Reference Bureau).
Demographers predict the change in China’s policy will not have a huge impact over the long run.
“The truth is that, before the relaxation of the one-child policy, there were substantial proportions of people [who] could and already had a second child, especially in the rural areas,” said Yong Cai, a sociology professor at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.
The one-child policy exempted ethnic minorities, couples in some rural areas, and couples with a disabled first child. Some couples abused the latter exemption and provided fake medical documents to seek permission to have a second child.
The shrinking workforce and aging population are growing concerns for the Chinese government in Beijing. Two years ago, China relaxed the one-child policy by allowing families to have two children if either the husband or wife was an only child.
However, the relaxation of the 36-year-old policy did not create the baby boom projected by the government. By the end of last year, about one million couples applied to have a second child, compared to an expectation of 2 million, according to China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission.
“People are choosing not to have a second child obviously because of the policy, but more so because of socio-economic changes,” Cai explained. “Also, with almost 30 years of propaganda and brainwash, people start to accept the idea that one child is OK. You don’t need to go beyond two children.”
Jane Golley, an economist at Australian National University in Canberra, said relaxing the one-child policy was not a promising solution to the aging problem. “Because you need something to happen quicker than that,” she said, referring to the long period of time before babies grow to young adulthood and join the workforce.
“Even if it helps the aging problem, it creates a new youth dependency problem.” Golley said the government should instead invest in education and extend the retirement age to improve productivity.
China’s government listed delaying retirement age as an option in its 13th five-year plan published by Xinhua News this month. Currently, the retirement age is 60 for men, 50 for blue-collar women, and 55 for white-collar women.
The change in policy comes as China grapples with an economic slowdown that has triggered alarms across the world and is reminiscent Japan’s stagnation after its post-war economic miracle. However, Japan’s negative population growth and rapidly aging population made it harder for that country to recover from its stagnation in the 1990s.
Japan’s population grew at about one percent from the 1960s through the 1970s, but has declined sharply since then.
In 2005, Japan’s population declined for the first time since World War II, according to Japan’s Statistics Bureau. The 2010 census showed that 56.3 percent of the households were nuclear-families and 32.4 percent were one-person households.
“Aging and population decrease may reduce the productivity progress,” said Hisakazu Kato, an economics professor at Meiji University in Tokyo. “In addition, an aging society means that elderly persons often withdraw money from their account then the national savings rate and investment rate go down and the speed of capital accumulation decreases” he wrote in an email.
In Tokyo, the Japanese government has taken measures to encourage higher fertility rates. It allocated 24.4 billion yen ($198 million) for childcare services and the promotion of women’s participation in labor market. Another 3 billion yen ($24 million) in the 2013 fiscal budget went to programs designed to combat the declining birthrate. Local governments even arranged dating parties for young people to meet.
“The penalty or the cost of having children is extremely high. So having a little bit of government support is not really going to make much difference,” said Basten. Young Japanese have little job security, he said, work long hours and face high housing prices. Also, the traditional view still persists that married women should stay home and take care of their children
In Washington, John Seager, president of Population Connection, formerly known as Zero Population Growth, said allowing more immigration was a simple solution for Japan. “They can simply put up a help wanted sign in the direction of the Asian continent. And they would have absolutely no trouble attracting all the workers they could possibly want.”
In the past, the Japanese have not put out the welcome mat for immigrants. However, survey shows support for immigration is growing. However, immigration is not much welcomed in the homogeneous nation. A survey by a national Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun, in April showed that 51 percent of Japanese welcome foreigners who want to settle down permanently. A similar survey in 2010 showed that only 26 percent of Japanese showed support.
“Japan prefers to have a society that is basically comprised of Japanese people and that’s their choice. They are gonna’ have to live with that,” Seager said.
Hisakazu Kato projected that Japan could lose as much as one-third of its population in the next 50 years. “It will be necessary to accept around 30 million immigrants to compensate population decrease.”
Japan’s total population in 2014 was 127 million, compared to 1.35 billion in China.
While China and Japan are worrying about their aging population, India celebrates growth in its young workforce. The U.S. Census Bureau projected that India’s population would surpass China’s population in 2025.
India counted 1.29 billion residents last year but its population grows at about 3 times the rate in China, due to higher fertility rates.
However, fertility rates in India vary greatly by states. The central government has failed to meet its objectives of reducing the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 percent by the end of 2012. In its Twelfth Five Year Plan, the government listed measures such as raising the minimum age for marriage and granting more access to contraceptive services to help achieve the goal.
Moneer Alam, an economic demography professor at Institute of Economic Growth in India in New Delhi, projects that India will most likely achieve the replacement level by 2020. He cited high unmet needs for contraception, poor reproductive health care infrastructure and gender discrimination as challenges the Indian government faces.
Many women in India have little awareness or access to contraceptive methods, according to the Indian Express.
Alam said India faces a unique situation where both the young and old populations are growing. “Both are fraught with major policy implications…,” he said, “Unfortunately, India is facing problems at both the levels: jobless growth and no social protection for the elderly.”
Oxford’s Basten said that India will not suffer a shrinking workforce anytime soon. “Certain parts of India are aging rapidly but at the same time, there are still a lot of Indians [who] move around and migrate in lots of areas.”
Some states in India implemented a “two-child norm,” a China-type population policy that limits couple to two children and bars them from running for public office if they exceed the limit. According to the Hindu newspaper, the “two-child norm” was passed in 11 states.
But government alone cannot engineer the size of families. “In all parts of the world without this kind of strict policy, fertility has continued to decline,” Basten said.
19 Comments on "Asia Faces Fertility Crisis"
SilentRunning on Thu, 12th Nov 2015 5:49 pm
Hopefully the world fertility rate will plunge lower and lower, so that our population will eventually drop to a sustainable level.
Davy on Thu, 12th Nov 2015 7:10 pm
Well, this article was completely status quo talk. The elephant in the room is never discussed. That discussion should be how millions will be fed after an economic decline and dangerous oil depletion both limit the ability of the global system to deliver industrialized mono cultures of food. How will vast amounts of food be processed and preserved for distribution and preparation for consumption? How will a globalize world of global industrial food production and distribution be traded if confidence is lost leaving letter of credits useless.
You can talk all day long about population statistics and projections within the status quo but what if the status quo is almost over? Shouldn’t we be discussing the alternative. The problem is the alternative is horrible. You can’t sell horrible in our cornucopian narrative. If you word it right you can allude to it but forces within society deny honesty of science and research.
Expect horrible things in Asia. The worst will occur there but by no means only Asia. Asia will have the worst because it has 4.5BIL people and can’t feed itself and does not have adequate energy resources. Once Asia begins its collapse the west will be right behind her since the west needs Asia for a multitude of spare parts to run its complex society.
We are in population and consumption overshoot. All locals have been delocalized by overconsumption and or overpopulation and most often both. Add to this ecological degradation and climate destabilization. Nowhere is there real optimism yet society can spin a population story like above to sound almost OK. Amazing how us humans operate.
makati1 on Thu, 12th Nov 2015 7:11 pm
“But it is the government’s job to make society a better place and to help people in their aspirations to … achieve what they want to achieve. In that way, fertility rates would probably go up.”
Is that why The US, Japan and Europe, that have those attributes, has a ‘declining’ population? It appears that a ‘better place’ does NOT increase the size of families. It decreases them.
The ‘spin’ in this Us based article changes direction with every other sentence. Typical of the source.
“India celebrates growth in its young workforce”
Then…
“The central government has failed to meet its objectives of reducing the total fertility rate to the replacement level of 2.1 percent by the end of 2012.”
Which is it? Growth or contraction?
Not that many in the Us will read it all, or probably, none of it. It is too long and requires thought to follow the twists and turns. Both a long attention span and thought are rare in America.
SilentRunning on Thu, 12th Nov 2015 7:48 pm
Declining fertility is not a “crisis” – it should be welcomed as good news.
It would be like a 600 pound man viewing that he is not gaining weight as rapidly as a “crisis”.
Davy on Thu, 12th Nov 2015 8:24 pm
Here is some China news that points to population issues:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-12/here-biggest-and-most-underreported-risk-facing-china
Kenz300 on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 9:33 am
Climate Change, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, pollution, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable…
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
adamc18 on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 9:53 am
The weird thing is that mainstream economists are still arguing that we need more young people to do productive ‘jobs’ in order to support the ageing population. Just today figures are out for the UK showing that robots will replace 15million of 30 million jobs before 2040, so what will the young people do? Already we have trapped our existing youngsters on an educational treadmill which is geared purely towards making them cutthroat competitive employees for the big corporations. It is a cruel fraud because the jobs simply won’t be there. It is not just low-paid jobs, but lawyers, accountants and medics are going to see their opportunities shrink. Obviously the more highly-paid the job, the more worthwhile it is for the employers to robotise it.
China has reversed its one-child policy, but many young people now find themselves responsible for a large number of elderly parents and grandparents and simply cannot afford to have more than one child.
penury on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 10:46 am
Perhaps the studies done on population, fertility and overcrowding will be dusted off and re=visited. Nature bats last and I hear she is a cruel bitch.
joe on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 1:23 pm
Aren’t most jobs to be done by robots and a.i. In the next 10-15 years? If that’s true then declining population is good if productivity gains from mechanisation and computerisation of most service jobs is to he moved forward. Many skilled westerners may find themselves leaving and looking for work in undeveloped economies in a kind of reverse globalisation, and may result in a new colonialism with all the same old resulting fallout. Mostly in the west we repair and maintain utilities, we install updated utilities and refer to them as ‘revolutions’, and we oversee a vast network of globalised facilities which basically facilitate an energy burning and wasting system. My own belief is that climate change talks are a cover for peak oil and that robotics and a.i will be used as cover for reduced spending on old age care and lower fertility is what they expect as a way to manage the downsizing of population, which will not be needed. People won’t care who/what is driving the delivery truck as long as it gets here. As fewer and fewer human hands touch products that reach our homes, the services themselves which sell them also have humans removed from the selling and advertising process until eventually humans are removed from the equation altogether. The one child policy came from a time when filling bellies was all that mattered, back then Chinese labourers wore those blue ‘Mao’ uniforms and carried bamboo buckets over their shoulders. The economic miracle that is China today was not in that plan, it happened because of globalisation. That plan continues today and it’s next phase is to draw in more of Asia and develop them, and that will fund the pyramid scheme of the 1% to ever greater heights so that they won’t need anyone at all to look after their interests.
onlooker on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 2:43 pm
This article is the most absurd thing I think I have ever read. Asia of anyplace in the world is where populations must decrease not increase. The article has it completely reversed. Only on a dumbed down, controlled media can you have such baloney being transmitted.
apneaman on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 3:38 pm
I hope the Chinese fuck like rabbits and shit out another gazillion resource sucking, heavy polluting consumer zombies.
You go, my little asian cancer-yeast brothers.
Kenz300 on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 6:44 pm
The least educated people have the most children…
The poorest people have the most children………
conversely
The most educated people have the least children……..
The wealthiest people have the fewest children……………
Hhhhhhhmmmmmmm seems to be a trend here………
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child….
apneaman on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 6:58 pm
The wealthiest and their stupid fucking elitist children named Kenz pollute more in year than an entire 3rd world village does in a generation.
Hey Kenz, I bet just the diapers that dear old mom and dad slapped on your spoiled ass could fill an olympic swimming pool. What was it like a christmas at your house? Mounds of toxic plastic shit made by 3rd world kids in slave factories? The single most effective thing you could do to reduce carbon emissions is shoot yourself in the fucking head. The internet alone is good for 15%, so do your part and unplug.
And then shoot yourself in the fucking head.
makati1 on Fri, 13th Nov 2015 11:30 pm
Ap, so true.
The US burns ~2.5 gallons of oil per day, per person. Not counting imported products made from/with petroleum.
The Philippines burns ~0.12 gallons per day, per person. And that is just petroleum. 400,000 barrels per day for 100 million people.
Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita
US = ~7,000kg
Ps = ~400kg
China = ~2,200kg
India = ~700kg
Interesting that The US energy use is equal to 10 times that of India’s, per capita, with 1/4th the population, yet India is blamed for consuming too many resources … lol.
Davy on Sat, 14th Nov 2015 6:34 am
More per-capita distortions by the Makster. OK, Makster the US and the west is in consumption overshoot but your Asia is off the charts in consumption and population overshoot. Do your childish googling on Asian coal consumption to balance things out then get back to me. Silly old man explain how 4.5BIL of the worlds 7BIL people in a space smaller than Russian are going to be fed when shit hits the fan.
makati1 on Sat, 14th Nov 2015 7:45 am
Dream on Davy, dream on….LMAO!
Kenz300 on Sat, 14th Nov 2015 9:07 pm
Having a child that you can not provide for is cruel…..
It only leads to more poverty, suffering and despair…
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
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bubble shooter on Fri, 5th Jan 2024 1:10 am
Facing a series of pandemics that are coming unexpectedly all the time. I think fertility will not necessarily be a crisis