As prices tumble, doomsayers hold fast to prophecy

Peak-oil theorists reject any claims of resurgence in supply

OTTAWA — It’s been a tough week for peak-oil theorists — those limits-to-growth doomsayers who argue the world’s crude oil supply has begun an inexorable decline that will force prices ever higher.

At an OPEC meeting this week, Abullah Jum’ah, chief executive officer of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco, directly challenged their theory, saying there is plenty of world oil left to be recovered.

As if to underscore his claim, crude prices fell throughout the week, as geopolitical concerns that had been driving the market took a back seat to the fundamental fact that there is now ample production to meet slowing demand growth.

Yesterday, crude oil prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange — which hit a record $78.40 (U.S.) in July — traded briefly below $63 a barrel before settling at $63.33, down $2.92 on the week.

But Kenneth Deffeyes, a leading peak-oil theorist from Princeton University, has seen nothing that shakes his conviction. On the contrary, he said he can point to the precise month when global crude production peaked: December, 2005.

Globe and Mail