APEC: Advanced Technology Will Cut GHG Increase, Emissions Will Still Rise

Investment in cleaner, more advanced and energy efficient technologies could reduce the expected growth of greenhouse gas emissions in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region by about 49% relative to what would otherwise be the case by 2050, according to a new report from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Research Economics (ABARE).
Under current policy, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to be about 130% higher in APEC economies by 2050 (48.2 Gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent) relative to 2004 levels (20.9 Gt CO2-eq), according to the report. In this business-as-usual scenario, energy consumption is projected to increase by about 139% from 5.8 gigatonnes of oil equivalent (Gtoe) in 2004 to 13.7 Gtoe in 2050.

However, even in this advanced technologies scenario, emissions in APEC are still projected to be 17% higher (at 24.4 Gt CO2-eq) than 2004 levels in 2050. The widespread diffusion of energy efficient and low emission technologies globally results in global emissions declining by 45% at 2050 compared with the increased emissions in the reference case, according to ABARE. Despite this large decline, global emissions are still projected to continue to rise in the enhanced technology scenario, increasing by 36% between 2004 and 2050.

With energy consumption in APEC economies projected to increase by 140 per cent, investment in technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is crucial. In order to achieve further reductions in emissions, governments may also choose to increase terrestrial sinks in forestry areas by fostering sustainable forest management and lowering the rate of deforestation. APEC economies in particular have a role to play here as they account for around 54 per cent of the global managed and natural forest area.
—Phillip Glyde, ABARE Executive Director

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