Page added on June 20, 2005
Spot oil prices climbed to new highs last week even as the price of the December 2011 futures contract fell, steepening the backwardation I commented on here and here. A look back at what happened in the early 1980’s may give some insights into what the market may be expecting next.
Last week’s news was not encouraging. British Petroleum announced that U.K. oil production was down 10% over the last year, suggesting that the decline in production that began in 1999 as North Sea fields are depleted may be accelerating. Concerns about possible turmoil in Nigeria may have also worried markets. But the most important factor continues to be strong world oil demand.
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