Analysts Predict US Nat Gas Reserve Growth Limited Through 2010

Energy Security Analysis Inc., a Wakefield, Mass., consultancy, warned Monday that the U.S. domestic natural gas reserve base will see very limited growth over the next five years, with most new production only managing to offset the steep decline rates of aging fields in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma.

The consultancy said North America will experience prolonged production capacity constraints for at least the next five years, causing natural gas prices to remain extremely sensitive to any unplanned supply disruptions.

According to the ESAI report, excess production capacity will only be available in the Rockies for the foreseeable future. As a result, domestic production will make up a significantly diminished share of total U.S. supply by 2014, mostly due to the increases in lower-cost liquefied natural gas imports.

The report also stresses that the planned U.S. energy bill can have a significant impact on the future of U.S. natural gas supplies.
Schlumberger