Analysis of Decline Rates (Part II)

In the first part, we tried to estimate the implicit decline structure behind the IEA analysis of worldwide decline rates. We established that only 11.8 mbpd of a total of 69.8 mbpd were not in decline in 2007 (17.0%) and for the Super-Giants/Giants group, the IEA claims that around 20% (9.2 / 42.5) are still growing fields. I’m now trying to answer the following question: is the decline structure observed for the world and the SG/G group closer to a pre-peak or a post peak production?

Based on the only field-by-field datasets publicly available (Norway and the UK) and looking at the decline structure we came to the following conclusion: If the decline structure for the world follows the decline structure that has been observed for UK+Norway, there is an 85% chance that the world’s oil production is in final decline.

The Oil Drum