Analysis: China’s fuel oil reserves

North Korea no longer has the capability to initiate a large-scale invasion of South Korea; in fact it lost this ability in the mid-1990s. This assessment is based on the calculation of the fuel oil the mechanized battle groups of the North Korean People’s Army would need to launch an invasion and the actual oil inventory of the country.

Using similar calculations, one can analyze how long Taiwan’s forces could survive an attack from China, and how long China’s PLA forces could sustain an assault on Taiwan. On the Chinese side, it means assessing how much fuel oil would be required for the navy, air force and mechanized amphibious combat units to engage in large-scale cross-strait landing assault operations.


China made the decision in 2004 to build four large strategic oil reserve bases in three southeastern provinces: Zhenhai Base in Zhejiang province, Luanshan Base on Zhoushan Island of the same province, Huangdao Base in Qingdao, Shandong province, and Dayawan Base in Guangdong province. According to plan, initial reserves of 10 million cubic meters of crude oil were expected to be accumulated by 2010.

Before this goal is reached, China’s strategic fuel reserves remain fragile. In addition, all of these strategic oil reserve bases are built in coastal provinces, mainly because they must rely on imported oil. If the bases were built further inland the cost of transporting the oil would be very high.

The locations of these reserve bases make them very vulnerable should a conflict break out in the Taiwan Strait. Among the four bases, all except the Huangdao Base in Shandong are within striking range of Taiwan’s cruise missiles and combat aircraft.

Energy Daily