Page added on June 22, 2005
From an email from a reader of ours:
“I have met with some skepticism from co-workers and friends over the fact that even if we have “only” used up half the world’s oil, we should still be able to easily go on and extract the last half. From what I’ve read, this just isn’t so.
I have thought about how to demonstrate the declining production paradigm, and came up with this simple demonstration. Take an average alcoholic. Take a 20 ounce tumbler, and stuff a new clean sponge in the bottom. Pour a fresh pint of dark beer in the tumbler and top it off with a little more, so the alky knows at least there is a full 16 ounces in the tumbler.
So there is known quantity (proven reserves) of dark beer (oil) in the tumbler (world), plus a little more (undiscovered reserves). Have him drink to his hearts content…”
The metaphor continues quite ingeniously over at The Oil Drum.
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