A Vision For The Post-Peak Oil Future (Pt 2)

“Where there is no vision, the people perish”
— Book of Proverbs.

“We face a choice going forward. There’s a kind of false dichotomy, a false choice that we’re being presented between policies on the left or policies on the right. It’s not left or right, it’s forward or backward. It’s a choice between investing in the future, leaving a better future for the next generation just like parents and grandparents did for us, or ignoring these hard choices and sentencing the next generation to a lower standard of living, to fewer opportunities, and a future that we could do better by.” [1]

Are we really content with what is happening to us? Too many polls suggest we’re not, and given what we’ve all been experiencing and enduring of late, that should surprise absolutely no one. It’s nonetheless discouraging.

“Less than one-third of Americans are confident of reaching the ‘American Dream,’ and huge majorities say it will only get harder for their children and grandchildren, according to a comprehensive new survey on the American Dream. Worse, according to the second annual American Dream Survey from the Xavier University Center for the Study of the American Dream, only 23 percent of Americans see the nation on the rise with a majority—52 percent—saying China now represents the future….
“The survey is a depressing review of how people view their situation and the nation in general. Among the findings:
“– Only 23 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction with 67 percent saying ‘things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track.’
– Just 27 percent say they are ‘extremely confident’ of reaching the American Dream, down from 40 percent a year ago.
– 78 percent say they have less trust in government.
– 69 percent feel it will be harder to reach the American Dream than it was for their parents; 73 percent say it will be still harder for their children or grandchildren to reach the American Dream.
– 23 percent believe America is a country on the rise, down from 32 percent last year. Only 39 percent believe America represents the future, with 57 percent saying that the world looks to other nations now. And 52 percent say it’s China that represents the future.” [2]

We face perhaps the most challenging set of conditions anyone of this generation has ever faced: politically, culturally, militarily, economically, globally, and environmentally—in addition to what we face with regard to the continuing ready availability of our energy resources and climate change. Our efforts, such as they have been to date, are not helping. While we may not be the actors directly responsible for sowing so much discord and stalemate, our passivity nonetheless enables. This should change, and we have the power and the wisdom to do so.

There are no easy answers to the challenges we face. There are no quick solutions. There are no readily apparent decisions which will effectively cover all of these challenges at once. There are no inexpensive outcomes. And there are no successful options that will arise or be implemented without a much more active involvement from all of us. Mostly, we’re going to have to learn to and prepare ourselves for adaptation. Peak Oil is not a challenge to be solved as we traditionally understand the concept so much as it will be an adjustment and revamping of … well, almost everything we produce and consume and require.

I’m already on record as emphasizing the importance of local government involvement as we move forward into a future with very different amounts and kinds of energy resources to power us. Guidance, as I’m suggesting, will have to come from the national level, and that will be no easy task, either. Our media will have to move beyond the normal and too often dysfunctional chatter, too.

No matter what will be proposed: more drilling; less drilling; Arctic exploration; no Arctic exploration; conservation; business (and waste) as usual; fuel efficiency; fuel use with no considerations at all; smart growth; sprawl; regulations; libertarian industrial freedom; mass transit; drive ‘til we drop; none of the above, etc.etc., some group will propose 15 reasons why this or that option can’t/won’t work, or is pointless, or all we need instead is blah, blah, blah.

Every policy proposal and suggestion will have critics with all kinds of both legitimate and irrelevant criticisms. I’m not sure we’d know how to interact otherwise!

But the most critical issue to be addressed by all of will be more direct: do we bog ourselves down by nit-picking—working harder to find out why something won’t work or why it is not perfect in every way under every condition and for every person—or do we adopt a grander strategy that will under no conditions be perfect or even acceptable to everyone, but provides us with the best long-term opportunities in the face of Peak Oil. If we cannot get beyond problem-solving-business-as-usual, we’ll be having these pointless partisan battles for another century … assuming we survive intact that long.

Do we lead? Can we? The current insanity that’s passing for debt-ceiling deliberations and the appalling lack of integrity and intelligence which now passes for one party’s political strategy suggests—sadly—that we cannot lead … not if this circus is any indication.

Do we make the difficult choices we know going in do not and cannot possibly meet with everyone’s approval (even our own), but which have as their purpose first and foremost a vision about where we need to be 10, 20, 50 years from now (or, to be more specific, where we want our children to be) in a world without fossil fuels at the ready? Can we become motivated, informed, and guided always by providing ourselves and our children the best opportunities for a prosperous life given the conditions we will then be faced with and with the resources then at our disposal? Will we continue to make the perfect the enemy of the good to justify narrow ideologies and self-interests? Can we truly plan for the long term, summoning the courage to recognize the great changes that are soon upon us?

There is and will be simply too much complexity, too much change across too many boundaries and industries and communities resulting from the steady decline in fossil fuel availability as time moves on. Without guidance and vision originating at the national level, leaving implementation and adaptation as needed to the regional/local communities, we’re very quickly going to find out that 300 million people and several million businesses and media personnel and academic advisors will each have their own idea about what to do and not do as we confront Peak Oil. “Chaotic” doesn’t even begin to explain how that strategy will work out.

A future with diminishing fossil fuel resources—our future, more specifically—is going to be so different and in so many ways, and so much more constrained by that fact, it’s unlikely anyone can legitimately wrap their mind around that eventuality at this moment. We have relied on inexpensive, readily-available and easily-produced fossil fuels for so much, so long, in so many ways, for so many products and services that it is just about inconceivable right now to appreciate how many changes are in the offing. Anyone thinking that freedom to be free as one pleases without regard for others (so long as the same rights and freedoms of every other person are similarly respected) is sheer fantasy in a post-Peak Oil world.

A fossil fuel-driven life is all any of us have ever known, and there are virtually no aspects of production, transportation, or consumption that doesn’t depend in some part on inexpensive, readily-available and easily-produced fossil fuels. That is most certainly not going to change dramatically overnight, but the situation we’ll soon be facing simply isn’t going to get any better if all we’re counting on for many more years is more inexpensive, readily-available and easily-produced fossil fuels.

Transitioning to a non-fossil-fuel based system will be no easy or quick process. Very few aspects of our lives—personal or commercial— will be untouched. The evolution of new systems and production modes and transportation options will be years/decades in the making.  Accepting that is step one. The creativity and vision and skill and sense of community that first built this nation are the very same traits we will need once again as we usher in a new future.

It can be done! The choice is ours.

How do we get there? What must we do now?

Ideology has no place here. Both the Left and the Right are going to have to compromise, and in some cases perhaps a great deal. The overriding question will always be: what kind of a nation do we want to be?

This is about doing what is best for the most. The only way this is going to happen is for all of us to pitch in, to work from national objectives guiding—in most instances—regional/local efforts, which also happen to provide each of us with the best opportunities to play a role. We must begin focusing on the strategies, and not the ideologies. It’s okay for each side to not have the best solutions or positions all the time! We’re all in this together and each side does and will have great value to contribute, but the efforts must be predicated on the recognition that we enter a future vastly different from the past which brought us to this moment. Political philosophies will serve as excellent talking points at the dinner table, and that may serve as their only value for some time to come. Peak Oil’s impact is so much more than that.

Do we want to stay afloat as leaders for another day, guided by our partisan interests and ideologies, or do we lead for decades to come?

Do we want our children to be part of a better future? The choices will be ours….

Peak Oil Matters