A Tale of Four Predictions

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a well known geoscientist, predicted that US Lower-48 oil production would peak and start an irreversible decline between 1966 and 1971. Lower 48 production peaked in 1970, 14 years after Hubbert

In a column published in Forbes Magazine in November, 2004, Daniel Yergin, an historian and chairman and co-founder of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), in response to a question regarding future world oil production and oil prices, predicted that world oil production would surge, driving oil prices down to $38 per barrel by November, 2005. In fact, oil prices have traded in a range about 50% to 100% higher than Yergin