A quantitative assessment of future net oil exports by the top 5 oil exporters

There is increasing concern worldwide about global oil supplies, especially in the context of a global oil production peak. However, what really matters to oil importing countries is world net oil export capacity, and we are deeply concerned that the top five net oil exporting countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE (United Arab Emirates), collectively accounting for about half of current world net oil exports, in aggregate are going to show an ongoing decline in net oil exports, continuing an aggregate net export decline that began in 2006.

Some recent net export decline rates in other countries, such as Indonesia and the UK, have been quite severe.


Indonesia exported 780,000 bpd (Total Liquids) in 1996. Eight years later, Indonesia was a net oil importer.

In a similar fashion, the United Kingdom in 1999 was a major net oil exporter, exporting more than one million barrels per day (mbpd). Seven years later, the UK was a net importer.

Figure 1 shows UK liquids production (crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids), versus net liquids exports. Note how quickly that net exports went to zero, even as the UK continued to produce significant quantities of liquids.

Energy Bulletin