A nuclear power renaissance? Maybe not.

Laguna Niguel, Calif. (Fortune) — Three new nuclear power plants in the next ten years, max. That was the consensus among the experts attending Tuesday’s morning session on nuclear power at Fortune’s Brainstorm: Green conference. Maybe five, said one lonely voice. Either way, that’s far from the nuclear renaissance we were reading about just a couple of years ago. What happened?

No. 1, the global recession. As economic activity slows, so does demand for energy. More cars with batteries would help. “The electric car,” says NRG Energy CEO David Crane, “is the air conditioner of the 21st century.” Maybe later. For now the market’s way too small to spark big demand.

No. 2, sinking natural; gas prices. At $13.69 per thousand cubic feet, not just nuclear, but any alternative to natural gas for making electricity looks pretty good. At $3.48, where natural gas futures stood last week, the economic incentive shifts.

Fortune