A Likely Strike of Iran

Two days ago, an international meeting to discuss imposing harsher sanctions on Iran was canceled. It was due to conflicts around Tehran’s nuclear file between the US and Europe on the one hand and between Russia and China on the other. Despite the fact that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice dubbed these conflicts as “tactical” considering that the Russians are bargaining with the Americans on other issues, such as spreading the missile shields in areas considered by Moscow to be a threat to its national security. In parallel, the Chinese are interested in securing more Iranian oil, which is necessary for the increasingly booming economy. However, it is unlikely that these conflicts will be resolved in the near future and that Moscow and Peking will make concessions regarding their strategic interests.


But this disagreement between the major decision-making capitals on the Iranian issue will maximize, rather than minimize, the chances of a US military strike of Iran, with the participation of Israel of course. This is due to the fact that Washington, which confirmed more than once, as voiced by a number of its officials, that it will not allow the Iranians to own the bomb, has adopted till now the traditional course to gradually pin down Iran so that it might refrain from pursuing its endeavor and so that the military solution can be a final option. However, impeding and delaying this course means for the Bush Administration bringing forward the date of “the final cure.”

Some, including Tehran itself, believed that publishing the National Intelligence Estimate, which pointed out to the halt of Iran’s military nuclear program fours year ago and predicted Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear bomb between 1010 and 2015 if it continues to fertilize uranium, has embarrassed the republican administration and put major hurdles in front to of its military choice. However, others consider the democrats’ determination to infiltrate the report to the media to be an open call for Bush to speed up his decision before any expected change takes place and before the arrival of the democratic candidate to the White House. The reason is that they prefer that he hands them a completed file and not an open crisis, just as they want to make him bear the responsibility of being a “war-loving” president.

Dar Al Hayat