A fate worse than global warming?

While we temporize about global warming – some would say dither – its long-term dangers may be overtaken by a related, but more acute, crisis: The depletion of the fuels that power the way we live on the planet, especially hydrocarbons like oil and coal. Eventually they will be exhausted.

This fact should be unsurprisingly obvious, since we’re using these fuels at a rate that is much greater than they could possibly be replaced. Still, our reserves are enormous, making it easy to develop a sense of complacency about the future.

But, as a number of writers have pointed out, the depletion crisis will come not when the last barrel of oil or the last bucket of coal is burned, but when the peak of worldwide hydrocarbon production is reached. With regard to oil, this peak is sometimes called Hubbert’s peak, after Shell geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early ’70s. He was right; U.S. production has declined every year since 1970.

Other scientists have used Hubbert’s methods to predict a peak in worldwide production, as well: the optimists give us 25 or 30 years; the pessimists believe that the peak is occurring right now. (Two good discussions of the prospects for worldwide oil production are Kenneth S. Deffeyes’ “Hubbert’s Peak” and David Goldstein’s “Out of Gas.”)

Scripps Howard News Service