A Bridge Too Far

The energy sector will be back, all too soon

Despite recent evidence to the contrary, the global economy is not headed back to the Stone Age. It is also doubtful that China is preparing a new Cultural Revolution to ship hundreds of millions of city dwellers back to work the land, and to get over dreams of new cars and refrigerators. On the contrary, the developing world may pause in its development, but it won


Global oil depletion ahead

The Obama Administration is not likely to acknowledge Peak Oil, although the staff has no doubt seen the reports and statistics. If the new administration were to agree that Peak Oil is upon us, it would have to go all out, drilling in areas his constituency opposes and pushing hard for rapid construction of nuclear power plants, which Obama has previously not supported. And yet when the global economy revs up again in 2010 or even 2011, the demand for energy will be explosive and enduring. The global oil supply will be depleting 9.1% next year according to the latest IEA report. The IEA (International Energy Agency) forecasts that China, India and other developing countries’ demand will require investments of $360 billion each year until 2030. The agency says even with that investment, the annual rate of output decline will still be 6.4%. According to the IEA report, the global energy complex needs a minimum investment of a $1 trillion a year, and needs to find the equivalent of one Kuwait annually in order to replenish depletion and keep up with global demand. With the coming severe global downturn, drilling is slowing rapidly as the price makes current production uneconomic for many companies. And new investment in exploration isn