2012: Will it be the end of the world as we know it?

Will the world end in 2012 as some believe the calendar of the ancient Maya predicts? Here we examine the fact and the fiction behind the most popular doomsday scenarios.

Peak oil: The reduction of global oil stocks is, of course a reality, with the world’s economies consuming – financial collapses excepted – ever-increasing amounts of the black gold. But peak oil theory centres around supply and demand and postulates that, at some point, demand will outstrip supply. When is this likely to happen? Some believe that it already has while others think that it is likely to happen some time between now and 2020. A number of doomer sites link peak oil with the end of the Mayan calendar in 2012.

Demand for oil outstripping supply would have huge consequences around the world given that most economies are powered by oil, agriculture is completely dependent upon it for fertilisers and pesticides and the plastics industry is based on oil extraction. A collapse in social order following a peak in oil production is, therefore, something to be taken seriously.

Evidence: Peak oil is a near certainty but two questions remain: when will it happen and will the world have developed alternative sources of fuel in time? M. King Hubbert created the theory behind peak oil in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970. The theory has successfully predicted the decline from oil fields and regions subsequently. Optimistic observers do not believe that peak oil will occur before 2020 but admissions by some oil companies that they have overstated the reserves held underground have raised fears that we are at or may already have passed the peak. A decline in investment in new oil fields and plant during the global recession has only served to emphasise our total dependence upon a finite resource.

Likelihood: 4/10

Telegraph