$100,000 per Barrel Oil

Please note that this is only an interesting thought experiment to illustrate the huge potential for oil’s price escalation.
Assumptions:

1. Every percentage change of supply (while holding demand constant) or demand (while holding supply constant) results in roughly a 10 to 30 percent change in price. I heard that this tends to be the experience of long time commodities traders. Citation welcomed. But given that both the price elasticity of demand and supply for oil is very inelastic, this assumption sounds reasonable.
2. Post-Hubbert peak global oil production decreases at the Cantarell Field-like rate of 13.1% annual decline. While large, due to geographical proximity of Mexico, I think this Mexican oil field should have the highest production transparency, unlike Saudi Arabia. Therefore, actually a good proxy for post-peak oil global petroleum production.
3. In order to get an approximation for long-term oil price, we will take the average of the highest and lowest oil price over the past 18 months or so as a proxy for the current oil price.

Seeking Alpha