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PeakOil is You

Your best guess, when will it hit?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Aug 2025, 15:27:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sencha', 'T')he year we crash is the year I anticipate this one awesome PC game, that I never get to play because before buying it, the entire economy crashes.

Seriously though, let me think...

I'm going to say 2006. I suspect the next administration whether it be Bush's or Kerry's will have something seriously to do with Peak Oil.

So much for the value of thinking amongst the Peak Oilers.

https://i.ebayimg.com/images/g/rUwAAOSw ... -l500.webp

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sencha', '
')I believe if they have anything to do directly with Peak Oil, it will be accelerating it. I would also guess that it would take time to make this happen, so not until the second year of the next Preisdent's term in office.

Also, looking at the rate at which oil prices are rising, I'd say that if it continues to climb uphill, coupled with administration involvement, something is going to happen around that year.


Yes...at least you have your reasons for why you have an answer. Some just go with the herd...those would be the more normal peak oilers.

Of course, the Australian members of the group, go with the herd as well....just a different species is all.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Aug 2025, 18:49:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o, post a year.


2010.


Only off by 8 years so far. Better than the others.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 13 Aug 2025, 18:51:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'I')'ll go with 2009.

I would have been inclined to say 2008, but it looks as if Iraq won't be pumping as much as would otherwise be the case, plus price increases may reduce consumption a little.

5 years to party...


Well....21 years later we are still partying. And 7 of those past peak oil.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Aug 2025, 13:23:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'T')otally agree with Oilsnotwell.


Unfortunate because it reveals not only do you not know anything about the O&G industry but can't even figure out who does.

Which means Barbara, that you are about the PERFECT peak oiler!
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Aug 2025, 13:28:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', '
')I think this sounds like the most likely scenario, but do you mind if i ask a question? A lot of the posts i read suggest that production will decline quickly (anything upto 5% per year), why is this ? I notice that the US production peaked in 1970 and dropped by an average of 1% per year , why would the world be different?(source: BP stats review)

For starters, production certain can decline "quickly" (although that is a relative to a frame of reference which you didn't provide), but if your source of information are posts, from any place remotely resembling this website, then you are barking up the wrong tree for any solid information.

As even the amateurs now know. And the suckers have all fled.

Declines of an aggregate are completely dependent on WHAT is being aggregated. Different fields, different geology, the mix between discrete reservoirs and continuous accumulations, etc etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', '
')As for my prediction i will go for peak oil production in 2010 with a gradual decline in production from there on.


Permanently baffled indeed.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Aug 2025, 13:31:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'W')rong. Now.

Peak really won't matter now, since demand is currently outstripping supply, and any future production will be relatively neglible and won't be able to bridge the gap. It will become ever more apparent.

My humble opinion.


Perhaps. You're in good company.


No. You are both in idiot company, when it comes to even the most basic math, economics or geosciences necessary to understand the topic. But as peak sheep people (peaksheeple?) congregate here, and make sure that those who aren't peaksheeple have their histories and responses erased, by DESIGN you can't even learn why you are wrong.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 14 Aug 2025, 13:36:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilsNotWell', 'L')ONG POST ALERT :wink:

Everyone is making excellent points.



Isn't it amazing how that can happen? And yet because of underlying ignorance of the topics/technologies/geology and economics involved, they can screw the pooch and will become a laughing stock in a few short years?

This website demonstrates quite reasonably that bobbleheads are everywhere, and when together in a group, all reinforcing the others with the endless nodding of the purposefully ignorant and uninformed....they are happy even without having a clue! It is a psychological thing in the end I think, but I'm not a shrink to know the mental deficiencies necessary to create a single peaksheeple.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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