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WSJ - Peak Oil hit piece (Saleri) "Plenty of Oil"

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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 20:19:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')That still doesn’t answer the question of why over the last six years oil prices have increased by an average rate of 34% annually, when supposedly there is has been surplus production over that entire period.

Between 1997 and 2006, the prices of housing went through the roof. Does this mean there was a shortage of houses? Hardly.

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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby joewp » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 20:44:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '[')
Between 1997 and 2006, the prices of housing went through the roof. Does this mean there was a shortage of houses? Hardly.

Image


Uh yeah, there was. Compared to increased demand due to minuscule interest rates, there was a severe shortage. That's why there were record amounts of houses being built. Of course, they overdid it, which is why the prices are coming down now. Simple economics. Too bad you can't build an oil field with 2X4s and cheap plywood, huh?
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 20:57:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '[')
Between 1997 and 2006, the prices of housing went through the roof. Does this mean there was a shortage of houses? Hardly.

Image


Uh yeah, there was. Compared to increased demand due to minuscule interest rates, there was a severe shortage. That's why there were record amounts of houses being built. Of course, they overdid it, which is why the prices are coming down now. Simple economics. Too bad you can't build an oil field with 2X4s and cheap plywood, huh?

But was that demand real, or was it mostly a result of speculators?

It was mostly a result of speculators.

You had an artificial bidding-up of housing prices followed by an artificial building-up of housing stock. When the speculators could no longer out-bid each other, and defaults on mortages started to rise, the whole scheme came crashing down.

Now you have speculators doing the same thing with oil futures. The bidding up of prices will bring even marginal supplies to the market, but those high prices will also temper demand. At some point buyers will realize they have easy access to oil from many sources but there won't be as much demand as they had first thought. So the market will be saturated with oil, and the whole thing will come tumbling down.

The only question is When. It might start happening next month, or it might not happen for another 5 years or more. The last bull market in oil lasted more than 10 years (early 70's to 85/86). So who knows how long this one will last.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby shortonoil » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 21:01:50

Oil-Finder said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')etween 1997 and 2006, the prices of housing went through the roof. Does this mean there was a shortage of houses? Hardly.


Nice curve ball, but it doesn’t answer the question about oil. You just asked another unrelated one, obfuscating my original question! If your analogy is correct, oil should parallel housing. Following your logic, oil prices should now crash and no one will want to buy it. There should be tons of it hanging around, marring up the landscape. The oil industry should morph into the same state the housing market is presently in. You would have to be delusional to believe that will happen.

A short answer is to your remark is: you don’t pump houses out of the ground.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 21:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]Oil-Finder said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')etween 1997 and 2006, the prices of housing went through the roof. Does this mean there was a shortage of houses? Hardly.


Nice curve ball, but it doesn’t answer the question about oil. You just asked another unrelated one, obfuscating my original question! If your analogy is correct, oil should parallel housing. Following your logic, oil prices should now crash and no one will want to buy it.

Did I say when the price will crash? No, I didn't. It might start crashing next week, or it might not start crashing for another 5 years or more. The last bull market in oil lasted over 10 years (early 70's to 85/86). So who knows how long this one will last.

Any time the price of something rises very rapidly over a relatively short period of time, you can be pretty sure it's a speculative bubble.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'T')here should be tons of it hanging around, marring up the landscape. The oil industry should morph into the same state the housing market is presently in. You would have to be delusional to believe that will happen.

When the oil price crash eventually does occur, that's pretty much what will happen.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'A') short answer is to your remark is: you don’t pump houses out of the ground.

Obviously you don't believe the article which opened this thread. Or even remotely believe anything like it.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby joewp » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 21:26:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '
')But was that demand real, or was it mostly a result of speculators?

It was mostly a result of speculators.

You had an artificial bidding-up of housing prices followed by an artificial building-up of housing stock. When the speculators could no longer out-bid each other, and defaults on mortages started to rise, the whole scheme came crashing down.


Gee, I guess my next door neighbor who bought in 2004 and still lives there with his wife, two kids and yappy dog is just a speculator? I guess the hundreds of people that bought houses in my township in the last 5 years are just speculators and will be leaving soon?

Good, maybe the traffic will thin out a little.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Now you have speculators doing the same thing with oil futures. The bidding up of prices will bring even marginal supplies to the market, but those high prices will also temper demand. At some point buyers will realize they have easy access to oil from many sources but there won't be as much demand as they had first thought. So the market will be saturated with oil, and the whole thing will come tumbling down.

The only question is When. It might start happening next month, or it might not happen for another 5 years or more. The last bull market in oil lasted more than 10 years (early 70's to 85/86). So who knows how long this one will last.


Of course, you completely discount two basic facts:

1) There ain't that much new supply
2) Demand in places like China and India is just ramping up, and they don't know the price is high, so the high price doesn't affect them. Demand in the US is still growing even at $3.00+ gas prices.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 21:34:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')Gee, I guess my next door neighbor who bought in 2004 and still lives there with his wife, two kids and yappy dog is just a speculator? I guess the hundreds of people that bought houses in my township in the last 5 years are just speculators and will be leaving soon?

Good, maybe the traffic will thin out a little.

Nice straw man. Did I say that all people who bought houses during that period were speculators? No I didn't. I said, "that demand [the demand which made housing prices rise so rapidly] was mostly the result of speculators." Obviously a lot of people bought houses for normal reasons. But if you hadn't had so many speculator enter the market, the price of houses wouldn't have risen so rapidly. I hope this is not in dispute.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'O')f course, you completely discount two basic facts:

1) There ain't that much new supply
2) Demand in places like China and India is just ramping up, and they don't know the price is high, so the high price doesn't affect them. Demand in the US is still growing even at $3.00+ gas prices.

And you discount two facts:

1) There is plenty of new supply. I've spent half my time on this board trying to tell everyone where this new supply is going to come from, but of course few here believe it.
2) Demand in India and China is also affected by price. How the hell can they not know the price is high?? LOL!! And demand in the US is almost flat lately.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby shortonoil » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 21:49:13

joewp said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course, you completely discount two basic facts:


One more thing: you can build an infinite number of houses (or close to it), but they made X amount of oil, and it is going to be 65 million years before they do it again.

Oil-Finder said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')bviously you don't believe the article which opened this thread. Or even remotely believe anything like it.


Being a mechanical engineer, having spent a good share of my career in the mining industry, and having spent the last five years deeply involved with this subject, my estimation of the above article is that it is as valuable as the fifth teat on a cow (I also grew up in a farming community).
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby joewp » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 21:54:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')Gee, I guess my next door neighbor who bought in 2004 and still lives there with his wife, two kids and yappy dog is just a speculator? I guess the hundreds of people that bought houses in my township in the last 5 years are just speculators and will be leaving soon?

Good, maybe the traffic will thin out a little.

Nice straw man. Did I say that all people who bought houses during that period were speculators? No I didn't. I said, "that demand [the demand which made housing prices rise so rapidly] was mostly the result of speculators." Obviously a lot of people bought houses for normal reasons. But if you hadn't had so many speculator enter the market, the price of houses wouldn't have risen so rapidly. I hope this is not in dispute.


No, it is in dispute. I personally don't think there were that many speculators among buyers. Most of the houses I know of sold to people who live in them. I live in New Jersey, so that might make a difference, but we had huge price increases here without much speculation at all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'O')f course, you completely discount two basic facts:

1) There ain't that much new supply
2) Demand in places like China and India is just ramping up, and they don't know the price is high, so the high price doesn't affect them. Demand in the US is still growing even at $3.00+ gas prices.

And you discount two facts:

1) There is plenty of new supply. I've spent half my time on this board trying to tell everyone where this new supply is going to come from, but of course few here believe it.


And just like most on this board, I'll believe it when I see it. I'm still waiting for Thunderhorse to start pumping.
Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')2) Demand in India and China is also affected by price. How the hell can they not know the price is high?? LOL!! And demand in the US is almost flat lately.

"Almost flat" = still rising.
They don't have a context in Chindia to compare the prices to. Most of them don't know gas cost under a dollar just 6 years ago. They didn't budget their stagnant pay against it, they don't feel the increased price. Higher prices to them aren't as traumatic as they are to US citizens. But even with our context, we still have to drive, to work, the store and other places.

Once we stop, the entire economy collapses.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby DantesPeak » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 22:02:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '
')2) Demand in India and China is also affected by price. How the hell can they not know the price is high?? LOL!! And demand in the US is almost flat lately.


Tell us oil-finder where you see oil demand is flat. Per the EIA today, oil inputs into refineries are up 1.4% over last year. That's not flat, that's up.

So residual fuel oil demand is down, there are regulations forcing its replacement. So what? It doesn't matter if gasoline demand might be leveling off, oil is still being demanded for diesel in Europe and other kinds of oil products in the US.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 23:35:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '2')) Demand in India and China is also affected by price. How the hell can they not know the price is high?? LOL!! And demand in the US is almost flat lately.

Tell us oil-finder where you see oil demand is flat. Per the EIA today, oil inputs into refineries are up 1.4% over last year. That's not flat, that's up.

I said "almost flat." I do not consider a 1.4% rise to be a particularly large one.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'S')o residual fuel oil demand is down, there are regulations forcing its replacement. So what? It doesn't matter if gasoline demand might be leveling off, oil is still being demanded for diesel in Europe and other kinds of oil products in the US.

I was replying to joewp's comment about oil demand in the US, not sure where you got Europe into this.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby DantesPeak » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 23:43:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ot sure where you got Europe into this


We are starting to export diesel to Europe now. Gasoline exports to Mexico are also increasing.

I expect in the next few years we will also be seeing US diesel and gasoline exported to other parts of the world - including oil exporters.

That's going to keep those refiners busy, and eventually keep US product inventories low, whether demand in the US is flat or not.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 23:47:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')Gee, I guess my next door neighbor who bought in 2004 and still lives there with his wife, two kids and yappy dog is just a speculator? I guess the hundreds of people that bought houses in my township in the last 5 years are just speculators and will be leaving soon?

Good, maybe the traffic will thin out a little.

Nice straw man. Did I say that all people who bought houses during that period were speculators? No I didn't. I said, "that demand [the demand which made housing prices rise so rapidly] was mostly the result of speculators." Obviously a lot of people bought houses for normal reasons. But if you hadn't had so many speculator enter the market, the price of houses wouldn't have risen so rapidly. I hope this is not in dispute.


No, it is in dispute. I personally don't think there were that many speculators among buyers. Most of the houses I know of sold to people who live in them. I live in New Jersey, so that might make a difference, but we had huge price increases here without much speculation at all.

As of 2005 . . .
--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to LoanPerformance Inc., a San Francisco mortgage data firm, about 8.5 percent of mortgages nationwide in the first 11 months of last year were taken out by people who did not plan to live in the houses themselves, up from 5.8 percent in 2000. In some markets, that proportion is much higher: in Phoenix, more than 12 percent of mortgages were taken out by investors; in Miami, the figure is 11 percent.

And you can be sure that went up by 2006 and early 2007.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'T')hey don't have a context in Chindia to compare the prices to. Most of them don't know gas cost under a dollar just 6 years ago. They didn't budget their stagnant pay against it, they don't feel the increased price. Higher prices to them aren't as traumatic as they are to US citizens.
I hereby nominate this for the most nonsensical post of the year.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Wed 05 Mar 2008, 23:51:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'n')ot sure where you got Europe into this


We are starting to export diesel to Europe now. Gasoline exports to Mexico are also increasing.

I expect in the next few years we will also be seeing US diesel and gasoline exported to other parts of the world - including oil exporters.

That's going to keep those refiners busy, and eventually keep US product inventories low, whether demand in the US is flat or not.

Well, we shall see. If it's true, it might help our balance of trade. :)

And that actually makes me wonder if they're doing that at least in part because of the low dollar. Since a low dollar makes it cheaper for foreigners to buy US goods, maybe they're deciding that it's cheaper to buy US-refined gasoline and import it than to refine their own gasoline.

Just a thought.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby joewp » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 00:04:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Oil-Finder', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')Gee, I guess my next door neighbor who bought in 2004 and still lives there with his wife, two kids and yappy dog is just a speculator? I guess the hundreds of people that bought houses in my township in the last 5 years are just speculators and will be leaving soon?

Good, maybe the traffic will thin out a little.

Nice straw man. Did I say that all people who bought houses during that period were speculators? No I didn't. I said, "that demand [the demand which made housing prices rise so rapidly] was mostly the result of speculators." Obviously a lot of people bought houses for normal reasons. But if you hadn't had so many speculator enter the market, the price of houses wouldn't have risen so rapidly. I hope this is not in dispute.


No, it is in dispute. I personally don't think there were that many speculators among buyers. Most of the houses I know of sold to people who live in them. I live in New Jersey, so that might make a difference, but we had huge price increases here without much speculation at all.

As of 2005 . . .
--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ccording to LoanPerformance Inc., a San Francisco mortgage data firm, about 8.5 percent of mortgages nationwide in the first 11 months of last year were taken out by people who did not plan to live in the houses themselves, up from 5.8 percent in 2000. In some markets, that proportion is much higher: in Phoenix, more than 12 percent of mortgages were taken out by investors; in Miami, the figure is 11 percent.

And you can be sure that went up by 2006 and early 2007.


Hmm, according to your link:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Demand for investment properties has risen in markets with the most spectacular price increases, according to brokers.


Seems the specs came in after the prices went up, not caused the prices to go up. All they were doing was providing liquidity. If they're the ones responsible for the increased prices, why did the price increases stop? Why don't the specs continue buying and selling to keep the prices rising?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'T')hey don't have a context in Chindia to compare the prices to. Most of them don't know gas cost under a dollar just 6 years ago. They didn't budget their stagnant pay against it, they don't feel the increased price. Higher prices to them aren't as traumatic as they are to US citizens.
I hereby nominate this for the most nonsensical post of the year.

Just because you lack the ability to comprehend English doesn't make it nonsensical. There's a big difference between their price experience and ours. We have cheap oil embedded into the system and expectations. They don't. Happy Motoring is still a luxury to them. It's not to us.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 00:25:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')Hmm, according to your link:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Demand for investment properties has risen in markets with the most spectacular price increases, according to brokers.


Seems the specs came in after the prices went up, not caused the prices to go up. All they were doing was providing liquidity. If they're the ones responsible for the increased prices, why did the price increases stop? Why don't the specs continue buying and selling to keep the prices rising?

No, that does not say they came in after the prices started increasing, it says that speculators have been going into the markets where prices have risen the most . . . which was caused largely by speculators. A classic feeding frenzy.

If you don't understand why the price increases stopped, that tells me you have little grasp of basic economics. At some point, the price of something gets too high, and people stop buying. Once people stop buying, the price crashes. If it weren't houses, but iPods or blue jeans, the same thing would happen. If speculators bid up the price of blue jeans to $1000/pair without even intending to wear them, at some point people would just say, "This is ridiculous," and stop buying. Then the price would crash. Once the price would crash, you would have a bunch of fools left holding blue jeans they bought for $1000 with no intention of wearing them, and they can't get anyone to buy them for more than $100. This is exactly what has happened to the housing market, as evidenced by the fact that speculators hold a disproportion of defaulted mortgages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '
')Just because you lack the ability to comprehend English doesn't make it nonsensical. There's a big difference between their price experience and ours. We have cheap oil embedded into the system and expectations. They don't. Happy Motoring is still a luxury to them. It's not to us.

I still nominate this for the most nonsensical post of the year. So, all those people in China and India - most of whom are much poorer than Americans - are willing to pay a lot for their oil just because of the novelty of driving? That's like saying I'd be willing to buy a million dollar mansion just for the novelty of living in one, even though I can't remotely afford it. Yeah, right.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby retiredguy » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 01:07:40

There is a rapidly-growing middle and upper class evolving in both China and India. The people in these groups can afford expensive gasoline. What is restricting their demand at this point is lack of auto-friendly roads. And China is working on that shortage.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby Oil-Finder » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 02:01:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('retiredguy', 'T')here is a rapidly-growing middle and upper class evolving in both China and India. The people in these groups can afford expensive gasoline. What is restricting their demand at this point is lack of auto-friendly roads. And China is working on that shortage.

OK, but so what? Does this mean that this Chinese and Indian middle class who want to drive cars is not going to be affected by high oil prices? If Americans who drive cars are going to be affected by high oil prices, then Chinese and Indians who drive cars are also going to be affected by high oil prices.
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Re: Saleri: The World Has Plenty of Oil

Postby seahorse » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 09:40:29

Guys,

China and India both subsidize fuel costs, so the population doesn't feel the brunt of the rise.

China Fuel Subsidies

India Fuel Subsidies

Without the subsidies, those two economies wouldn't be growing like they were. In the end, these fuel subsidies will back fire, hopefully before the pressue in the Opec wells gives out.
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WSJ - Peak Oil hit piece

Postby roccman » Thu 06 Mar 2008, 10:05:50

The world is not running out of oil anytime soon. A gradual transitioning on the global scale away from a fossil-based energy system may in fact happen during the 21st century. The root causes, however, will most likely have less to do with lack of supplies and far more with superior alternatives. The overused observation that "the Stone Age did not end due to a lack of stones" may in fact find its match.

Yawn...
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