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Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 14 Jun 2009, 23:37:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '
')There are very real reasons to be concerned about our future but at this stage there is no point in panicking. There are many outstanding professionals working on the above problems. I'm merely reporting developments when find them. Please calm down.


Sorry, couldn't resist.

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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 14 Jun 2009, 23:48:40

Mos, This thread is about energy and climate not politics and sustainablity. Discussions about the latter belong in the Geopolitical and Economic Forums. Don't you agree?
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby americandream » Sun 14 Jun 2009, 23:58:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'A')aahh. OK we got the oil nailed or so it seems. Never mind all the other shit that goes into my trendy lady pulling downtown apartment upwind from mall utopia. We got the oil. Lots of it it seems

Now hows about the AGW from all the shit we're, 6 billion of us, gunna put out from that oil. Hey! Never mind. Mebbe some nice person will invent us out of a fcukked up earth. On the other hand, this AGW stuffs all a commie plot, innit?

Well, lest you think all I've been doing is informing people here about "dirty" energy, I remind you I've also tried to tell people here about wondrous new developments in lithium battery technology (more) coupled with large lithium deposits in Nevada. I've tried to tell people here about nifty new solar technologies coupled with a mad rush to build solar power plants in the Mojave Desert. But, alas, whenever I try to do that I get told that installed solar power is insufficient to maintain installed solar power. :roll: So no matter what I say, people here don't believe me.

*shrugs*


The reason you piss people on here is because many of them have seen the problem and you and Graeme are not addressing them. Instead you peddle false hope.

Renewables are fine, our problem however is our system. It's premised on infinite growth on a finite planet. Then you get people like the Greens coming along with these renewable pipe dreams. But nothing changes. In fact things get worst. Of course they will. Why.

Because the core system is not renewable. Its not even remotely close to a steady state and is way off kilter with its resource base. The technology to expand the resource base is limited by the sum total of what the earth offers.

There may well come a time when someone will devise a resource alchemy variant. But alas,that ain't here yet. Space missions to mine other planets. Forget it. Space junks eventually going to maroon us on earth. Some of that junk may perversely act to reflect some of the suns heat but with not much left to live on, our kids aren't going to be exactly pleased with us.

We need to stop all further expansion of capitalism NOW. Its that simple.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby americandream » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:01:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'M')os, This thread is about energy and climate not politics and sustainablity. Discussions about the latter belong in the Geopolitical and Economic Forums. Don't you agree?


"Politics" ultimately comes from the Greek word "polis" meaning state or city. "Politikos" describes anything [my emphasis] concerning the state or city affairs.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:12:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'A')aahh. OK we got the oil nailed or so it seems. Never mind all the other shit that goes into my trendy lady pulling downtown apartment upwind from mall utopia. We got the oil. Lots of it it seems

Now hows about the AGW from all the shit we're, 6 billion of us, gunna put out from that oil. Hey! Never mind. Mebbe some nice person will invent us out of a fcukked up earth. On the other hand, this AGW stuffs all a commie plot, innit?

Well, lest you think all I've been doing is informing people here about "dirty" energy, I remind you I've also tried to tell people here about wondrous new developments in lithium battery technology (more) coupled with large lithium deposits in Nevada. I've tried to tell people here about nifty new solar technologies coupled with a mad rush to build solar power plants in the Mojave Desert. But, alas, whenever I try to do that I get told that installed solar power is insufficient to maintain installed solar power. :roll: So no matter what I say, people here don't believe me.

*shrugs*


The reason you piss people on here is because many of them have seen the problem and you and Graeme are not addressing them. Instead you peddle false hope.

Renewables are fine, our problem however is our system. It's premised on infinite growth on a finite planet. Then you get people like the Greens coming along with these renewable pipe dreams. But nothing changes. In fact things get worst. Of course they will. Why.

Because the core system is not renewable. Its not even remotely close to a steady state and is way off kilter with its resource base. The technology to expand the resource base is limited by the sum total of what the earth offers.

There may well come a time when someone will devise a resource alchemy variant. But alas,that ain't here yet. Space missions to mine other planets. Forget it. Space junks eventually going to maroon us on earth. Some of that junk may perversely act to reflect some of the suns heat but with not much left to live on, our kids aren't going to be exactly pleased with us.

We need to stop all further expansion of capitalism NOW. Its that simple.


Well, at least we've moved on from energy and climate. You are now talking about "our system". Discussion on this topic belongs in the Economic forum. I agree, there is a long way to go before our system can be regarded as sustainable. Would you like to start a thread in another forum?
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:12:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')he reason you piss people on here is because many of them have seen the problem and you and Graeme are not addressing them. Instead you peddle false hope.

Renewables are fine, our problem however is our system. It's premised on infinite growth on a finite planet.

I don't think you truly understand us, then (at least you don't understand "me"). I have tried multiple times to tell you "Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow we shall all die", and now you're trying to tell me I'm peddling "infinite growth." Not even your most diehard cornucopian believes humanity will be around forever. Thus, we also do not believe economic growth will be forever "infinite." It's a strawman argument.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'W')e need to stop all further expansion of capitalism NOW. Its that simple.

Well, this is getting way off topic. I see capitalism as a very organic and natural system. I had this discussion with MonteQuest once, to no avail. Most of the "greenies" here seem to regard capitalism as some sort of totally artificial and imposed system, whereas I see it as a totally organic and natural system complete with its own set of checks and balances, just like an ecosystem. This being the case, you could not stop capitalism any more than you could stop the participants in an ecosystem from interacting with one another and responding to each other's actions and inputs. Capitalism is what happens when you let people do what they want to do. It's been around for thousands of years, and it will be around for thousands more years.
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http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:20:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'M')os, This thread is about energy and climate not politics and sustainablity. Discussions about the latter belong in the Geopolitical and Economic Forums. Don't you agree?


Yeah, I'll lay off. I just couldn't resist there.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby americandream » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:21:37

OF2 and Graeme

Listen the both of you. Simply convince me as to how we are going to FULLY resource a renewable capitalism and I'm gone. I don't want hope, I stopped dating her ages ago. Just give me some scientific its happening now stuff.

Like you know, so and so has invented a technique to convert sand into finite resources as they fall into short supply will do just fine.

If you don't, I''m gonna pound you're ass until you stop peddling dope...oops, Im mean hope.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:37:49

americandream, I'm not sure what you're asking. Would nuclear fusion do? There are many threads here on that. How about nuclear fission? Lots of threads on that, too. Solar? This forum is filled with threads on that. Or, are solar, fusion, fission and the like "dope" instead of "hope?" I'm not even sure what you think would be "hope" instead of "dope," so I do not know how to answer your question.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby Graeme » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:41:09

OK, I can get you started. I'm a novice although I'm interested in this topic. I've started threads in the Open and Economic Forums on sustainability. The literature on this topic is vast. I've read books by Paul Hawken and Amory Lovins. Try finding references by Herman Daly. Google economic sustainability. Hopefully, these will wet your appetite. Cheers. :)
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby americandream » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 00:57:42

Do me a favour..the two of you. Quit trying to flog this dog with one fix remedies. You might want to add some qualifier to these sorts of postings in future Graeme rather than leave one with the impression that you have found the holy grail.

Neither of you guys have the foggiest notion as to where we will be in 2020 let alone put this gobshite out.

I'm outta here.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby americandream » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 01:01:27

Oh yeah...I'm a green capitalist a cruisin down the highway in mah NG hummer and a munchin on mah organic Chinese apple.

:lol:
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby yeahbut » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 02:20:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'R')emembers recent New Zealand history when we ripped up our entire CNG network nationwide as it was not financially viable for the petrol companies to operate.


Exactly, I was thinking the same thing reading this thread...on a similar theme, Ports of Auckland and The MOT have come up with a brilliant new idea to reduce the number of trucks in central Ak and make freight movement from the wharves more efficient- can you guess what this amazing new development idea is? Yeah, it's to lay down tracks and move most of it out of the city by rail. Like they used to. I remember those tracks still being there in Quay St in the 80s, and I remember when they ripped them up...short-sighted frickin muppets :x
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 04:31:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'A')nd the proportion of the population commuting more than 100 miles each way to work on any given day is what exactly?


From an October 2003 sampling of 1978 people:

Image

From BTS | OmniStats. Note the stats regarding "Stretch Commute"I linked to for OF2's benefit. Some of those people travelling >35 miles to work are driving ca. 100 miles. Many people where I live commute over 50 miles to Portland, and as I said there seems to be a paucity of CNG stations around here.

I pointed out the variability in fuel available as simply another minus that will deter potential buyers. This makes relying on CNG even more dicey.

Another reason for limited application of CNG/LNG in the US is that we have very exacting standards regarding safety, witness the recent bus explosion in China. This adds to the premium involved in buying, of course; the comments in the Honda Civic GX (natural gas) forum aren't surprising me at all, people want to buy these but their options are greatly limited by the system as it is.

I don't need any more of these global stats, OF2, I know that CNG autos work and are employed elsewhere, I'm calling into question their widespread acceptance in the US before shortages of oil cause a rush to buy them, emptying storerooms in an instant, the sort of simple 3 body arithmetic you seem steadfastly incapable of employing/understanding. Scooter stores in my locale were wholly out of stock last summer owing to the fuel spike; things were back to normal in the spring; no doubt they are getting more customers again. People don't look forward that much in this country.


OK people are weirder than I knew! The longest distance I ever regularly commuted was 32 miles one way when I got married the first time and moved before I found a new job closer to my first wife's family. She insisted in living close to them, I was young and in love blah blah blah. Before that I commuted 20 miles, once I found a closer job the most I have commuted is 8 miles and since 2004 when I bought this pest hole of a house it has been just over 6. Why anyone would spend over an hour every day trapped in a mobile metal box is beyond the psychology I understand.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 15 Jun 2009, 06:49:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy anyone would spend over an hour every day trapped in a mobile metal box is beyond the psychology I understand.

True that.

:: ::

Speaking of the natural gas topic, I think I might have an if not unique then at least interesting perspective on this issue, as a Swede.

Why is that?

Image

(Do note the usual screwy stats for nuclear in primary energy stats, essentially it provides as much power as the hydro, not three times as much, as two third of the energy is lost in the heat->power conversion.)

Image

Only fully drawn lines exist, the striped ones are speculative unlikely stuff, with at least the ones crisscrossing Sweden are zero probability projects.

So essentially, with a few marginal exceptions, we use no natural gas at all. That is, we run our society without any gas at all, proving that it's not only possible but also pretty easy.

This shows that plenty of other gas dependent nations could do the same by emulating us, thereby freeing up vast amounts of natural gas which can then be used to fuel cars, thereby reducing the pressure on the global oil supply. I think that's one of the most important and also most ignored ways to deal with the Peak Oil issue.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 19 Jun 2009, 21:31:20

R-Squared Energy Blog: How Much Natural Gas to Replace Gasoline?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow Much Do We Need?

The U.S. currently consumes 390 million gallons of gasoline per day. (Source: EIA). A gallon of gasoline contains about 115,000 BTUs. (Source: EPA). The energy content of this much gasoline is equivalent to 45 trillion BTUs per day. The energy content of natural gas is about 1,000 BTUs per standard cubic foot (scf). Therefore, to replace all gasoline consumption would require 45 billion scf per day, or 16.4 trillion scf per year. Current U.S. natural gas consumption is 23 trillion scf per year (Source: EIA). Therefore, replacing all gasoline consumption with natural gas would require 39.4 trillion scf per year, an increase in natural gas consumption of 71% over present usage. Assuming for the sake of argument that the 2,074 trillion standard cubic feet cited in the study is accurate, and that the gas is economically recoverable, that is enough gas for 53 years of combined current natural gas consumption and gasoline consumption.

We can also calculate in terms of oil imports. Right now the U.S. imports about 13 million barrels per day of all petroleum products. A barrel of oil contains around 5.8 million BTUs, but oil only makes up 10 million of the 13 million barrel per day figure. Other imports include things like gasoline (4.8 million BTUs/bbl) and ethanol (3.2 million BTUs/bbl). Scanning the list of imports, I probably won't be too far off the mark to presume that the average BTU value of those 13 million bpd of imports is about 5.4 million BTUs/bbl. On an annual basis, this amounts to 25.6 trillion scf, an increase over current natural gas usage of 111%. Going back to the 2,074 trillion scf from the study, this would be enough to displace imports of all petroleum products (again, at current usage rates and not factoring in declining U.S. oil production) for 43 years.


My WAG of 15 tcf was for about half of total gasoline consumption, not expecting to replace every vehicle at once, just those critical to commuting.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 19 Jun 2009, 22:18:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')herefore, to replace all gasoline consumption would require 45 billion scf per day, or 16.4 trillion scf per year

That's not far off from what the guy on Seeking Alpha estimated:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')efore you ask, remember that natural gas in the GX is compressed natural gas (CNG) at a pressure of 3,600 psi, which is why the gas tanks don’t need to actually be 968 cubic feet in size. Now we know how many GX tanks we need to fill every day, and we know how much natural gas is contained in each tank, so it’s easy to compute the amount of natural gas needed to power one half the cars in trucks in America for one year:

(24,375,000 GX tanks/day)*(968 cuft/GX tank)*(365days/year)

= 8,612,175,000,000 cubic feet natural gas

= 8.6 TCF (trillion cubic feet) natural gas

His calculation was for half of US vehicles, so double that and you get 17.2 Tcf per year.
Not bad for a guy who was unsure-enough of his own calculation that he gave the following disclaimer at the bottom of his article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is my first attempt at independently quantifying the natural gas supply and demand requirements based on my natural gas centric energy policy. I used the EIA website for all base data, which was taken from 2006 (the most up-to-date year all data was available). I had to make some assumptions, and while those assumptions are debatable, overall, I don’t think they meaningfully influenced the big picture. I am most concerned that I may have made an arithmetic or other miscue that influenced the results in a material way. If so, please respond with comments to the article in a constructive way. Any error was not intentional in order to support my own outspoken policy suggestions. I certainly encourage all readers to go through the numbers, verify their accuracy, or enjoy the pleasure of giving me a hard time if there are indeed errors. Thank you.

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Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 25 Jun 2009, 15:51:22

Linked in the Dave Cohen article I posted today: Chapter 17a: Peak Oil - Natural Gas Vehicles—how much can they reduce oil imports? | Forums at Chris Martenson

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')mployees who drive the small CNG cars have learned from unpleasant experience not to venture
onto a freeway with less than a half tank of gas. The gauge can plunge to “E” with alarming swiftness.
Stranded employees have no recourse but to call our garage for help. The garage cannot simply
send out a pickup with a gallon of gasoline, for they are not equipped to dispense CNG. They must
send a wrecker to tow the car to the fueling station. So it goes with CNG vehicles.

Long-haul truckers, whose livelihood depends on continual travel pulling full loads, do not want to
worry about making it to the next fueling station; few wreckers can tow a fully-loaded 18-wheeler. Nor
do truckers want to surrender 25% of precious cargo space to CNG tanks.

If our leaders are serious about displacing diesel fuel with natural gas, LNG is the logical direction for
future long-haul trucking. But LNG has its caveats. The existing LNG fueling stations scattered
around the country require highly-specialized, energy-intensive refrigeration and compression
equipment to chill the gas to -260 deg F and compress it to high pressure to liquefy it. But extensive expansion of LNG stations may not be economically feasible considering that the special equipment
might cost $1 million a pop(2). Most refueling stations take LNG deliveries by tanker truck. Truckers,
in turn, need insulated, high-pressure tanks on their rigs to maintain the temperature and pressure of
LNG. Rigs need roughly twice the tank volume to store LNG vs. diesel for the same driving range.
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 25 Jun 2009, 16:18:17

If CNG cars started selling well, they would also build more CNG stations, which would make that issue less dire. And as I said before, if they became popular enough they would start designing cars around larger gas tanks, which would help solve the problem of short driving ranges.

Another non-issue.

BTW, speaking of that 8-9 additional Tcf production needed each year to fuel half of US vehicles, somebody has already forecast just that amount:

Image
http://www.cleanskies.org/upload/MediaF ... cippt2.pdf
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Why unconventional natural gas makes the Waxman target easy

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 25 Jun 2009, 17:46:27

Not to be confused with the Clear Skies Act, that bone the Bush White House threw to coal companies.

Where was that graph published?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother non-issue.


Another non-reply. Do you have any knowledge of or interest in consumer behavior? Ask 48thRonin or Drew (both are truckers) what they would think of losing cargo space to make room for extra fuel, how that would cut into their bottom line. Ask some gas station owners if they're ready to spend $1 million bucks on providing LNG. Haven't sourced what the outlay for CNG is yet, but plenty of owners mark it up at the retail end to cover their costs, providing further disincentive for motorists.

Check out some of the 60-odd CNG vehicles marketed in Europe, too. Far as I know they generally don't retool the whole body design to make room for the tanks. Europe is more compressed than the US yadda yadda.
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