Prophets ..? Hmmm...
Well to me, spouting the idea that the laws of physics and economics are going to suddenly do a 180 and allow business as usual seems far more suited to that label.
PeakOil is You
Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by Omnitir » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 07:53:53
Why trust only the negative predictions, but dismiss predictions that put PO at a much later date, such as that of the USGS?
Why trust only those who have but a rudimentary understanding of economics as opposed to those who are qualified experts?
Why trust the technological debunks of those with no background in science or engineering but dismiss predicted breakthroughs from people who have spent their entire careers in science and technology?
Why trust only those who have but a rudimentary understanding of economics as opposed to those who are qualified experts?
Why trust the technological debunks of those with no background in science or engineering but dismiss predicted breakthroughs from people who have spent their entire careers in science and technology?
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 08:14:51
It's common sense what can and can't be done with renewables, and you have to be extremley dense to believe we can run anything near what we are now on them.
Challenges about time are different, as no-one knows how much of the black is left. That's why I don't like, or get involved with date predictions. (Other than the fact I believe OPEC is lying, but again no-one knows).
Challenges about time are different, as no-one knows how much of the black is left. That's why I don't like, or get involved with date predictions. (Other than the fact I believe OPEC is lying, but again no-one knows).
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by elroy » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 09:32:19
Last report over the 4th quarter and the entire year from Shell: PDF
Especially, check out page 18. Production has gone down worldwide for Shell, this can't just be blamed on the hurricanes.
Especially, check out page 18. Production has gone down worldwide for Shell, this can't just be blamed on the hurricanes.
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by Dreamtwister » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 12:50:06
Don't believe them. All you need to know is every time the Iranian President farts, oil goes up $0.75, the strategic petroleum reserve is now our swing producer, and President Bush, a Texas oilman, is preaching conservation.
What more do you need?
The actual date is at this point irrelevant. We are literally 1 well-placed cruise missle away from catastrophic supply interruptions.
What more do you need?
The actual date is at this point irrelevant. We are literally 1 well-placed cruise missle away from catastrophic supply interruptions.
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by TonyPrep » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 17:05:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'W')hy trust only the negative predictions, but dismiss predictions that put PO at a much later date, such as that of the USGS?
Probably because so many of the predictions in their 2000 report were off (countries that would be increasing production are in decline, discoveries and reserve growth would rise from 2000, and so on).-
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by smiley » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 18:56:46
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hy trust the technological debunks of those with no background in science or engineering but dismiss predicted breakthroughs from people who have spent their entire careers in science and technology?
Because scientists (myself included) tend to be over optimistic when it comes to predicting future developments. That is partly something which goes with the territory. Science is and should be the realm of dreamers.
But it is also a sign of the times. Realism does not serve the scientist well these days. It certainly does not get you any funding. Glossy articles hailing the significance of your work do.
I sometimes wonder whether we have actually crossed the point where media skills have become more important than lab skills. In any way we're not far off.
A scientist is not a fountain of truth. He is a salesperson, trying to sell his research and to protect his investments. He might be telling the truth, but be watchful of the small print.
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by Longsword » Mon 06 Feb 2006, 19:22:07
Just to echo others:
Look at the production numbers from the last few years, and note that several oil producers are in decline (UK, Malaysia, Norway, etc.), despite the assurances of the economists that they would ramp up their production massively.
Look at the rest of the producers and weigh in the chance they can increase their production to offset these declines AND produce all the extra oil required to fuel infinite exponential growth.
Draw your own conclusions.
In the large scale of things, even if PO is still decades away, we should do our duty to the future generations and deal with the energy problems NOW.
The only case scenario when I stop worrying altogether about the future of energy is if the Cornucopians are right and there is unlimited oil and other easily and cheaply accessible energy available, pollution is proven not to be a problem, and Earth's carrying capacity is found to be infinite in regards to explosively growing population.
For me, the key quesiton is not whether the PO year is 2006 or 2020. To me moving to more sustainable way of powering our culture is the goal.
Yours may vary.
Look at the production numbers from the last few years, and note that several oil producers are in decline (UK, Malaysia, Norway, etc.), despite the assurances of the economists that they would ramp up their production massively.
Look at the rest of the producers and weigh in the chance they can increase their production to offset these declines AND produce all the extra oil required to fuel infinite exponential growth.
Draw your own conclusions.
In the large scale of things, even if PO is still decades away, we should do our duty to the future generations and deal with the energy problems NOW.
The only case scenario when I stop worrying altogether about the future of energy is if the Cornucopians are right and there is unlimited oil and other easily and cheaply accessible energy available, pollution is proven not to be a problem, and Earth's carrying capacity is found to be infinite in regards to explosively growing population.
For me, the key quesiton is not whether the PO year is 2006 or 2020. To me moving to more sustainable way of powering our culture is the goal.
Yours may vary.
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by RacerJace » Wed 08 Feb 2006, 23:44:19
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'B')ecause scientists (myself included) tend to be over optimistic when it comes to predicting future developments. That is partly something which goes with the territory. Science is and should be the realm of dreamers.
I’d like to introduce a slight digression/rant here and note that there is a distinct difference between scientists and engineers (in generalistic terms). I am an engineer and have worked along side scientists in high tech fields for over 15 years. My experience has been that the typical mindset of a scientist is, as you say Smiley, over optimistic. This is usually because the scientist is focused on discovery and the positive implications of what they discover, for the good of their professional esteem and benevolence to the wider community. They need to be optimistic to encourage funding in what is often a very abstract non-commercially focused activity. As well as this they need a positive passion and determination for discovery to endure the long hours of toil and low productivity in between the breakthroughs.
Engineers on the other hand are generally focused on turning the discoveries of scientists into commercial reality. This is achieved through finding solutions to problems by applying known science and technology to overcome the hurdles of the commercial and physical world. It is therefore conclusive that an engineer will naturally look for potential problems and risks and try to mitigate them with the best solution driven by a goal to achieve for $1 what any fool (or crappy engineer) could do for $1000. Engineers tend to be overly pessimistic as a result, often erring on the side of conservatism (not necessarily the neocon type though). In the context of Peak Oil this comes out in my own views; tending to be pessimistic and sometimes down right doomer. I consider the worst case scenario and look for what needs to be done to mitigate it. Like Murphy’s Law states, “if it can go wrong it probably will” and if all the problems of a looming energy crisis can be solved in humane ways then all is good and I will sleep will at night. The important consideration in ‘believing the prophets’ is in how tangible and probable their claims are.
Only a critical review of the available/reliable data is surest way to be sure. All else is a subscription to soothsaying and sensationalism (try saying that with a mouth full of marbles !).
Oh and by the way don’t ask me to compare engineers and scientists to economists in terms of being over optimistic.
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by Ancien_Opus » Thu 09 Feb 2006, 23:59:15
On one side is pure observation, that peak oil happened in the U.S., caught almost everyone by surprise. A massive influx of technology and capital was unable to be reversed it. The U.S. tried technology and the drill bit to find its way out of peak oil and failed. The simple fact is the solution to the U.S. peak was to get oil somewhere else. Not an option this time.
On the other side is pure speculation. Somehow this time around, the market will provide an alternative or technology will prevail. You must dismiss what has happened since 1972 and take on faith alone it will be different for the world peak. Not very reassuring.
This world has been real lucky so far but it's a gamble that may just be played out. Trust has nothing to do with it.
On the other side is pure speculation. Somehow this time around, the market will provide an alternative or technology will prevail. You must dismiss what has happened since 1972 and take on faith alone it will be different for the world peak. Not very reassuring.
This world has been real lucky so far but it's a gamble that may just be played out. Trust has nothing to do with it.
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Re: Why trust Peak Oil Prophets?
by Jonathan_Hoag » Sat 11 Feb 2006, 18:22:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sch_peakoiler', 't')hey are no prophets, they are analysts. And no single Analyst on this planet is 100% true.
Then maybe they should refrain from making sensationalist claims as to when peak will occur or what effects hurricane season will have.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') It is not about believing or not - faith has nothing to do with this (or very little). If you go like you are suggesting then you will have to mark millions of analysts in all areas as "false prophets".
I beg to differ. Peak Oil Doomsdayism is very similar to Rapture Christianity. Hence my use of religious vocabulary.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') An example of what you right about 10 dollars a gallon prediction of Matthew Simmons. He could never expect that all wester states open their petr. reserves to offset for US production decline because of the hurricane?
Of course he could have. In fact he should have; he must have had. Oil is traded on a global market, it would be inconceivable to have $250 oil in North America but $50 oil in Asia or Europe. That would be a gross inequilibrium and only sustainable if there was a political trade barrier (global trade embargo of the World with the US).
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')this was the factor which saved the day, but the core of the Simmons's analysis is that the supplies are tight, with no spare capacity left -and you would hardly argue that would you?
If enough supply can be mobilized to offset $10/gal predicted price (we have $2.09/gal in Atlanta right now) then the supplies are now quite as tight as he thinks.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')but to return to the "prophecy" topic - no one on planet - frelling- earth is able to predict the peak as accurate as you would possibly wish.
