Why the oil industry has buried the idea of "peak oil"

by **ralfy** » Sat 21 Apr 2012, 11:41:23

According to the IEA, production from all oil and gas sources online will increase by around 9 pct for the next two decades, and this assumes that conventional sources won't follow historical flow rates. This is partly confirmed by various sources showing an increase, for example, of 4 mb/d for the same period for NA production. There are more details in reports linked here, including several from oil companies:

http://ralfyman.blogspot.com

The problem is that energy demand will have to increase by around two pct each year to maintain global economic growth, which means the 9-pct increase will be wiped out in only four years or so. And if conventional sources follow historical flow rates, then the increase will be even lower. And if energy (and in general, resource) demand has to go up due to increasing population or if production is damaged further due to pollution and climate change, then the situation worsens.

The IEA adds that in order to maintain global economic growth, we will need the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every seven years. In which case, one should not argue that "the oil industry has buried the idea of 'peak oil'." Rather, it sprinkled a bit of dust on top of it.

by **seenmostofit** » Sat 21 Apr 2012, 23:52:10

Considering their track record (the IEA is a great example of "don't worry, be happy" if there ever was one), let alone their claims that peak oil happened years ago, why pay any attention to them at all? They have obviously missed the boat before, and just because they happen to appear with us today doesn't mean they won't pull an about face tomorrow?

by **vision-master** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 10:28:32

Shorty?

by **ralfy** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 10:31:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'C')onsidering their track record (the IEA is a great example of "don't worry, be happy" if there ever was one), let alone their claims that peak oil happened years ago, why pay any attention to them at all? They have obviously missed the boat before, and just because they happen to appear with us today doesn't mean they won't pull an about face tomorrow?

by **seenmostofit** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 10:39:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'C')onsidering their track record (the IEA is a great example of "don't worry, be happy" if there ever was one), let alone their claims that peak oil happened years ago, why pay any attention to them at all? They have obviously missed the boat before, and just because they happen to appear with us today doesn't mean they won't pull an about face tomorrow?

by **eXpat** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 11:10:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'S')horty?

by **seenmostofit** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 18:38:09

Is anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

by **Lore** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 18:49:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'I')s anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

by **radon** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 18:59:18

This is an ancient tradition of this forum - when the sinister omens of a permanent ban are waving in the air, the mysterious word Shorty transpires on the scripts posted on the board.

by **eXpat** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 19:21:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'I')s anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

by **seenmostofit** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 21:45:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lore', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seenmostofit', 'I')s anyone going to let me in on the joke, or do I have to figure it out all by myself?

by **rangerone314** » Sun 22 Apr 2012, 22:04:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', ' ')In any event, in 15 or 20 years when there are multiple massive resource wars,

by **dsula** » Mon 23 Apr 2012, 08:32:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rangerone314', ' ')In any event, in 15 or 20 years when there are multiple massive resource wars,

by **davep** » Mon 23 Apr 2012, 09:21:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's a slow grinding process towards a miserable life. Nothing can be done. Everything cost more to buy each year, but your salary stays the same. Then you loose your job, you can't afford your health insurance, then you loose your house and before you know it you go thru garbage to find food. And in the end you die.

by **dsula** » Mon 23 Apr 2012, 09:52:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's a slow grinding process towards a miserable life. Nothing can be done. Everything cost more to buy each year, but your salary stays the same. Then you loose your job, you can't afford your health insurance, then you loose your house and before you know it you go thru garbage to find food. And in the end you die.

by **davep** » Mon 23 Apr 2012, 11:17:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hink of all the tools, machines (small and large), spare parts, fences, seeds, processing, glas, pots etc. you need. Once you can't get that no more you're in dire straits, even with 100 acres of land.

by **dsula** » Mon 23 Apr 2012, 11:22:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'd')sula, you apparently do not understand property tax . A municipality can not afford to tax all property beyond the owners ability to pay, otherwise the tax base disappears.