[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
B.) What's up with your name?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Small practical conventional cars vs Prius cost/safety/mileage comparison:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
...............................Base....Projected
.Make/Model...........Price....Reliability.....Curb Weight.....Safety Rating....MPG..........Source
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.Toyota Prius 2G.......22K.....Excellent.........2900 lb..........Good...........48 / 45.........C.R.
.Toyota Prius 3G.......22K.....Excellent..(?)....3000 lb..........Good...........51 / 48.........Edmonds.com
.Honda Civic...........17K.....Excellent.........2800 lb..........Good...........30 / 40.........C.R.
.Toyota Corolla........17K.....Excellent.........2900 lb..........Good...........27 / 35.........C.R.
.Toyota Yaris..........15K.....Excellent.........2400 lb..........Good...........34 / 39.........C.R.
.Ford Focus............17K.....Good..............2700 lb..........Good...........24 / 33.........C.R.
.Chevy Cobalt..........16K.....Good..............2900 lb..........Good...........22 / 31.........C.R.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
.Ford Fusion...........27K.....Excellent..(?)....3800 lb..........Good...........40 / 36.........Edmonds.com



Explanations for the numbers (which are rounded):


All models were 2008, but the 3G Prius and Ford Fusion, which are 2010's (new, so no Consumer Reports data yet).

Small sedans were chosen with midline trim, to try to get the most consistent results possible on price vs.
features vs. mileage vs. space. (All models came in sedans except the Prius). Automatic Transmission
was chosen for consistency, and that's what most people by far want these days.

The Fusion, given for comparison, has more of the truly poor trade-off ratios in terms of cost and efficiency that I
think the folks are tending to assign to the Prius -- precisely why I picked the Prius as better. Costing almost
twice as much as the small conventional cars, and getting very similar gas mileage, and having a lot of metal
in the car at 3800 lbs -- now that is a HIGH price to pay for a hybrid, no doubt.



Conclusions:


However, based on these (approximate) numbers, I still see the trade-off for the Prius as reasonable, if short
term economics isn't the top goal. (I know, I know, it is for like 98% of potential U.S. car owners at this point).

For the average small car like a Civic or a Corolla, safety and reliability are virtually the same, and the economic
penalty to go to the hybrid is about $5k. The city mileage is just about double. That's really significant in my
book.

For the Yaris which was cited, similarly featured, it saves another 2 grand and improves the mileage differential
to only a third in the city. However, it does give up 20% in weight and some size, which physics says WILL result
in some safety compromise (and less importantly, experience says will result in some comfort compromise too).

So, overall, I can see either approach (small inexpensive hybrid like 2010 Prius or 2010 Insight -- or small
conventional efficient) as rational and reasonable until better things like proven reliable and inexpensive plug-in
electrics become widely available (likely to be at least 5 years until PROVEN in my opinion). The higher the
proportion of city mileage you have, the quicker the environmental and economic payoff, of course.

One comment about the payoff period. I presume you doomers expect an escalating oil price trend - which implies
an escalating gas price trend, which would greatly shorten the payoff period. As a moderate, I still expect oil
to spike (not stay) to prices like $300, $500, or possibly even $1000 in the next 15 years or so, and to trend up
for the same period. So I think that there WILL be $10 to $20 gas price spikes in the future -- which is what
I expect to FINALLY motivate the masses to change. (It WILL be ugly and there will be suffering, but I still don't
see us as "doomed".)

Edit - changed font to small. Sorry folks - Preview lying about the format - apparently problems with my efforts at a table.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'O')ne comment about the payoff period. I presume you doomers expect an escalating oil price trend

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'O')ne comment about the payoff period. I presume you doomers expect an escalating oil price trend

[AgentR]

First off, I'm not saying Hybrids are bad; only that they don't save money. Which is fine. Cars are a money pit to begin with.

Using your numbers 23,500, and 17,200; which with TTL gets me to 25,938, and 19,119 for drive off price. At that point, using 70% city, and 10k/yr miles; the required gas price over 12years has to average $5.62 before you get break even. On the other hand, I think you're still placing to much stuff on the Yaris in order to artificially boost its price and reduce the differential. Its a fine car in its base format.

BTW.. The calculation is really very simple; there's no reason to rely on others to calculate it.

You take the difference between the two; compute an annual annuity equivalent; then see how much gas expense is required to match it. I'm adding a little to my calc by allowing for specifying a pct of city driving since it seemed important to your discussion; though it doesn't seem to make very much difference in the calculation.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'C')ars are a money pit to begin with.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') will try with new language. Every Prius you buy uses materials and energy in its own construction. However all Priuses ever built also require materials and energy to build the Prius factory--a massive amount. You amortize that total energy expenditure over all the Priuses built. The study concluded that the Hummer factory accounted for so little energy per car that the Hummer driven today actually cost less energy. Kapeesh?

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') will try with new language. Every Prius you buy uses materials and energy in its own construction. However all Priuses ever built also require materials and energy to build the Prius factory--a massive amount. You amortize that total energy expenditure over all the Priuses built. The study concluded that the Hummer factory accounted for so little energy per car that the Hummer driven today actually cost less energy. Kapeesh?

[hillsidedigger]

Why so stupid about how many miles we drive (whatever the vehicle)?

Live close to work, school and shopping or work, school and shop close to where you live.

There are many people moving into my neighborhood who actually think they can afford the daily commutes of 65 to 105 miles into Greenville, Spartanburg or Charlotte.

[Frank]

This thread is a hoot! The hybrid bashers are out in full force for sure! You folks should step back a bit and take a breath.

(a) the Prius was designed as a SULEV (super-duper low emissions vehicle) and not necessarily optimized for mileage. Ex. it will periodically start to keep the catalytic converter hot, even if it costs some fuel. I like the Fit, Yaris, etc. but I don't think they do as good as job as a parallel-hybrid, especially in city driving. Anything that automatically shuts the ICE off when it's not required is good.

(b) the vast majority of Prius' battery NEVER need changing; there's numerous cases of taxi cabs, etc. using the original battery for hundreds of thousands of miles. They can be recycled if/when the car is scrapped, totaled in accident, etc. The batteries are babied in actual use i.e. never severely stressed.

(c) the Prius vs. Hummer myth has been exploded many times (including on this forum) and isn't even worth getting into.

(d) the Prius won't necessarily return best bang-for-the-buck, but that is a choice best left to individual consumers, no? The cheapest cars I have ever owned/used are the $500 specials that you use for two years then scrap. They're not necessarily the best for the environment though.

(e) My personal experience is that maintenance costs are average or lower than regular cars. I don't know what Consumers Union would say but our '06 just cost me $600 after 93K miles, including iridium spark plugs which Toyota says will last to 120K miles. Yes, we drive a lot as we live in the boonies but our minivan sits in the driveway. The Prius replaced a Subaru (sold to a friend) which replaced his old pickup truck which he scrapped i.e. a 55 mpg vehicle replaced a 16 mpg vehicle. I've spent more for tires than anything else for this vehicle and fully expect to be driving it in 10 years. The only other items that regularly need changing are oil and filter, air filter and cabin air filter. The ICE uses a timing chain.

If I was in the market for a new "city" vehicle I'd be waiting for an all-electric Nissan or whatever. I drive a converted Toyota pickup truck (lead-acid batteries) and it works fine in rural Maine, even in winter. Modern batteries i.e. lithium will make a huge difference for regular folks. I know of several folks on the EV List who have converted new vehicles who regularly drive 75-100 miles on a single charge. The future is right around the corner. Of course it's better not to drive but the reality is that we'll use up every last bit of petroleum that we can. IMO it's better to stretch it out over as much time as possible, even if it won't really make a huge difference in the long run.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Thanks Frank for input that focuses on the mileage issues instead of hystrionics and pet peeves. (The thing I find the most bizarre is that the doomer community which (correctly, IMO) castigates society for being short sighted and wasteful ALSO seems upset/angry about the concept of "regular" folks who don't fit that mold).

I repeatedly tried to get folks to acknowledge that cost is NOT the only issue for some consumers, but for most folks I couldn't seem to get by a big wall of cognitive dissonance on that issue. When trying to do valid comparisons, figures were ignored or distorted to fit the preconceptions.

Good to hear about your terrific maintenance experience with the Prius. I was a bit concerned about the complexity and potential maintenance cost with the inverter/battery, the two radiators, etc. Sounds like my concerns (based on some blogs/discussions) were overblown, and that the Consumer Reports data showing the Prius as extremely reliable is consistent with your experience.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Outcast_Searcher', 'I') repeatedly tried to get folks to acknowledge that cost is NOT the only issue for some consumers, but for most folks I couldn't seem to get by a big wall of cognitive dissonance on that issue. When trying to do valid comparisons, figures were ignored or distorted to fit the preconceptions.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hillsidedigger', 'W')hy so stupid about how many miles we drive (whatever the vehicle)?

Live close to work, school and shopping or work, school and shop close to where you live.

There are many people moving into my neighborhood who actually think they can afford the daily commutes of 65 to 105 miles into Greenville, Spartanburg or Charlotte.

[ALBY]

i disdain pious owners also.

i also notice that despite what you see in the tv ads, they are not made of hay and grass.

[Revi]

We switched our cars about 3 years ago. I switched from a pickup that got 16 mpg to a pickup that gets about 26. My wife went from a subaru to an echo and gained about 15 mpg.

We save lots of money, but the price of gas went up in the meantime, so we live about the same as we did 3 years ago.

People gave me a hard time about it. I really didn't need to drive a full sized pickup. I do need a small pickup, however.

It's hard to disentangle your personality from the car you drive in America.

[energyhoggin]

back in the day after i got laid off i went from a ford f150 gas guzzler to a geo metro, i thought i was going to hate it but i had to cut cost. I found out i loved that little car especially when i went to the gas thief. Well some time later when i got back into my career i sold my little wonderful geo metro and got a small Toyota four banger pickup and haven't looked back since i sold that gas hog. It makes me sick when i see a 180 pound guy riding in a truck that can house five families, what a waste!!