[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')o state what should be obvious, 99% of the population of human beings are INCREDIBLY stupid.

You wonder why I am such a strict Darwinist? People this stupid DESERVE to be dead.

[StuckInPhilly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'T')o state what should be obvious, 99% of the population of human beings are INCREDIBLY stupid.

You wonder why I am such a strict Darwinist? People this stupid DESERVE to be dead.

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', '
')
Denial is an adaptive trait of humans. Those people that are fully aware of reality and their control (or lack thereof) over their own world are usually depressed.
Denial keeps people chipper and positive through tough situations.

Realizing the natural tendency towards this behaviour and managing to stay sane while recognizing reality is, of course, the challenge.
Humans unable to rise above their own, basic tendencies looks much like stupidity to some of us.

[Revi]

I've known about peak oil for over 10 years. At first I tried to tell everyone about it. They did not want to hear it at all. Now I keep quiet, but it's always there. It is like a terrible secret that underpins everything. Nobody wants to know it, except for people like us.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', '
')People who are concerned about Peak Oil are invariably Luddites and/or misanthropists. And everyone hates a Luddite or misanthropist.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')People this stupid DESERVE to be dead.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')I would also put you on my team Ludi. You are a fighter.

[Revi]

The people who die in an event like what's coming aren't the dumbest. It will be really random who lives and who dies. It will help not to be in the wrong places, but where are they?

We know that something is going to happen, but telling others that is not popular. We can't pinpoint the date, and nobody wants to hear about peak oil as a concept.

There is simply no way to tell people what we know. We may as well speak another language.

[TheDude]

Nate Hagens of TOD has written some fascinating articles on human desires in the context of energy, such as Status and Curiosity - On the Origins of Oil Addiction.

I wouldn't damn the bulk of the world's population as ignorant on energy matters, but rather uninformed. The notion of peak oil only has currency among a very small segment, and many others familiar with it deride it, for among other reasons the fact that others have prophesied irreversible decline worldwide before - Harold Ickes famously said "We're running out of oil!" in 1944. The other approaches to cracking this nut are that of technological advance and market salvation/transition. Tech has proved itself in the extraction business before - deepwater rigs commonly used today would've been considered science fiction in the 1960s; same with directional drilling; thus you get vague assurances that technology will come to the rescue in the bottom of the 7th or at the 11th hour, since it's always delivered before.

Nothing could be more distasteful to these people than the subject of economic/social unrest/collapse in the OECD, except perhaps concepts like ecological overshoot or EROEI. These are the province of granola chewing treehuggers - beyond the pale and off the radar. The notion that they could have any application to modern industrial society... This same crowd staunchly opposed the Club of Rome's message since the 70s, and likely always will.

[ROCKMAN]

I’ll offer a perspective from the oil industry side of PO. Some of the small points might be a surprise. Most important, despite the statements from some of the industry “leaders” that seem contrary to what most here believe, PO is a very old subject in the oil patch. As the Dude and others already know, we’ve never called it “PO”….it was typically referred to as the “reserve replacement” issue. And it was never really discussed with any sense of alarm or panic. It was merely an adjustment in business plan for many companies especially newly forming ones. From the late 80’s through today perhaps as much effort and capital has been expended towards reserve acquisition through purchase (from individual wells all the way through corporate acquisitions). A very large percentage of companies (mostly public) were formed with the intent to acquire older fields from the bigger companies and redevelop opportunities that were considered to small for the current owners. Domestic exploration programs were still developed but were generally small in scale compared to 20 or 30 years prior. Growth of these new operations was based mostly on reworking old fields. There were some surprises along the way such as the Deep Water GOM trend and the recent rapid development of unconventional NG. But they players in those trends still represent a minority of oil/gas companies (although their capital expenditures are huge overall).

I’ve been a petroleum geologist for 33 years and until a few months ago, after discovering “Twilight in the Desert”, TOD and this website I didn’t really know there was any serious public discussion of PO going on. Even today there are no conversations between my coworkers about PO nor are they generally aware of discussions as we have here or elsewhere. Lots of different backgrounds bouncing in and out of our conversations but you might have noticed not to many from the E&P side of the business. It’s not so much a lack of concern over the consequencies of PO but maybe just simply the inevitable nature of the situation. Excluding the cheer leading CEO’s of corporate oil, look at who’s leading the public conversation: economists and a few politicians. Perhaps this unalarmed view of the future is also due in part to the repeated boom/bust cycles most of us old timers have lived through. Times for us are great right now. Then they’ll turn bad for a while and then good again, etc. I really don’t have any other explanation. Over the last 30+ years, prior to joining this merry band of brothers/sisters, I had exactly one conversation regarding “PO” per se. It was with my nephew about 20 years ago and dealt with the PO world his daughters would have to deal with by the time they were adults. At the time I just made a wild guess of 2020 for no particular reason.

The thoughtful conversations I see here do give me some hope for us to rationally deal with PO. But that only works as long as I ignore the probability that “we” are the great minority with little chance to change public attitudes in a constructive manner anytime soon.

[Lanthanide]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'T')hat all changed back to ridicule & laughter once Y2K ended up to be a non event.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I wouldn't be on your team even if you paid me.

I despise and abhor your attitude.

[dinopello]

A lot of people I know understand and agree with the basics of peak oil. Some of those believe there is nothing that can be done about it and there is too much uncertainty about the timing and effects to do anything. Then some of those think it's crazy to talk about things you can't do anything about.

[Cashmere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I wouldn't be on your team even if you paid me.

I despise and abhor your attitude.

[Maddog78]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'I')’ll offer a perspective from the oil industry side of PO. Some of the small points might be a surprise. Most important, despite the statements from some of the industry “leaders” that seem contrary to what most here believe, PO is a very old subject in the oil patch. As the Dude and others already know, we’ve never called it “PO”….it was typically referred to as the “reserve replacement” issue. And it was never really discussed with any sense of alarm or panic. It was merely an adjustment in business plan for many companies especially newly forming ones. From the late 80’s through today perhaps as much effort and capital has been expended towards reserve acquisition through purchase (from individual wells all the way through corporate acquisitions). A very large percentage of companies (mostly public) were formed with the intent to acquire older fields from the bigger companies and redevelop opportunities that were considered to small for the current owners. Domestic exploration programs were still developed but were generally small in scale compared to 20 or 30 years prior. Growth of these new operations was based mostly on reworking old fields. There were some surprises along the way such as the Deep Water GOM trend and the recent rapid development of unconventional NG. But they players in those trends still represent a minority of oil/gas companies (although their capital expenditures are huge overall).

I’ve been a petroleum geologist for 33 years and until a few months ago, after discovering “Twilight in the Desert”, TOD and this website I didn’t really know there was any serious public discussion of PO going on. Even today there are no conversations between my coworkers about PO nor are they generally aware of discussions as we have here or elsewhere. Lots of different backgrounds bouncing in and out of our conversations but you might have noticed not to many from the E&P side of the business. It’s not so much a lack of concern over the consequencies of PO but maybe just simply the inevitable nature of the situation. Excluding the cheer leading CEO’s of corporate oil, look at who’s leading the public conversation: economists and a few politicians. Perhaps this unalarmed view of the future is also due in part to the repeated boom/bust cycles most of us old timers have lived through. Times for us are great right now. Then they’ll turn bad for a while and then good again, etc. I really don’t have any other explanation. Over the last 30+ years, prior to joining this merry band of brothers/sisters, I had exactly one conversation regarding “PO” per se. It was with my nephew about 20 years ago and dealt with the PO world his daughters would have to deal with by the time they were adults. At the time I just made a wild guess of 2020 for no particular reason.

The thoughtful conversations I see here do give me some hope for us to rationally deal with PO. But that only works as long as I ignore the probability that “we” are the great minority with little chance to change public attitudes in a constructive manner anytime soon.

[doodlebug2]

My feeling is that people would not understand it. By this, I mean that being a citizen here (USA) we are always told we can have and do have everything. So when it is mentioned that the most important thing (oil) may not last , it is met with a "no way" attitude. People in the US think that can have and derserve it all so nobody will say it. Nobody can/will be the messenger. It would take courage for a POL to stand up and say we are eventually going to have less oil and we need to change out habits.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Interfector', 'I')'m just wondering what is the mentality behind it. You could say people don't like to talk of doom and gloom, but it seems like it's more than that. Peak Oil is being lumped in with whacko conspiracy theories, rather than being seen as a scientific fact, which it is, and hence there has been up to now little (or not enough) serious discussion of it, because doing so gets one labelled as a whacko doom monger. How has this situation come about?

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doodlebug2', 'M')y feeling is that people would not understand it. By this, I mean that being a citizen here (USA) we are always told we can have and do have everything. So when it is mentioned that the most important thing (oil) may not last , it is met with a "no way" attitude. People in the US think that can have and derserve it all so nobody will say it. Nobody can/will be the messenger. It would take courage for a POL to stand up and say we are eventually going to have less oil and we need to change out habits.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')I would also put you on my team Ludi.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nano', 'I') think it is because being concerned about Peak Oil implies that one doesn't have faith in human ingenuity or human compassion when dealing with scarcity.

People who are concerned about Peak Oil are invariably Luddites and/or misanthropists. And everyone hates a Luddite or misanthropist.