by Rune » Sun 14 Jul 2013, 21:42:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', 'B')y debating you are forced to focus on what you believe, to muster it into a form... something akin to dialectic.
What he said.
I've been here since 2004. Different usernames. Not my choice to abandon them.
I read "Hubbert's Peak" by Deffeyes, which seemed compelling at the time, then Heinberg's books, and I accepted the logic for a while but then started having my doubts around 2006. I'lve rea a whole lot of other books on oil too.
I like contentious and debatable issues and this is one of them. I don't think oil is the be-all and end-all of energy. I look at what's happening with small modular reactors, the use of genetically modified microbes, Low Energy Nuclear Reactions, etc and I see real progress tha can't be ignored.
In order tobelieve in a peak oil apocalypse, you have to believe that innovation is impotent in the face of declining easy oil. I have no reason to believe that innovation is impotent.So I debate those that harbor that belief.
Not that there won't or can'lt be some sort of global culling; those things have happened in the past. There is no reason to believe they can't happen again. But I don'lt believe you can predict the future with any degree of accuracy. You can only make guesses based on trends.The future makes present fools of us all.
I don't think there will be an end to civilization, certainly not from an oil shortage. I rather entertain the notion that the Earth itself is evolving and has always evolved, growing in complexity faster and faster. And that human being are just a phase of growth which will eventually usher in some new ubiquitous and awesome intelligence that will cover the entire planet. But that's not a belief; that's a notion I entertain. Who knows what will happen. I certainly don't.
I look at things like automation and robotics and artificial intelligence, which while seemingly showing slow growth, are ceaseless in their development and capabilities. Eventually, machines and machine intelligence will give even the best of we natural humans a desperate run for our money.
Simultaneously, we have a huge and growing global population which isincreasingly interconnected via sophisticated communications. The idea of a Global Brain is now an old idea, but still relevant.
Eventually, there will be no more humans. We will have evolved into something else. No way will civilization reverse itself.
And if hard times come due to resource shortages, or the bubble bursts for some reason, the pace of innovation will only increase, as it does in war time.Just because technological civilization advances doesnLt mean there canLt be another plague, or another WWI writ large.
The planet and its life evolves; maybe one day there will be more effective stepping stone than human beings in whatever Earth is growing towards.